Friday, January 25, 2008

Reality Check for Isles

Last night’s 4-1 loss to the Boston Bruins shouldn’t sit well with Islanders fans. The loyal Islanders fan has been told to give this team a chance—that this team will fight for every point and fight for every puck on every shift on every night. But all too frequently, that is not the case. Had the Isles come out with a strong performance in Boston, they might have been able to head into all star weekend with the notion that they have over-performed thus far this season. Had they emerged with two points last night, they might have been able to look down the stretch with a hint of optimism as well as confidence. Instead last night’s 4-1 loss to a mediocre Boston team should signal a reality check for the New York Islanders.

But how can the Isles have a winning record (4 games over .500) and still be subjected to the kind of criticism I am portraying here? Well it’s quite simple. The Isles are the only team in the NHL who are capable of defeating the best teams in the league, while losing to some of the worst; and this signifies a team that straight out refuses to work on some nights.

The Isles frequently take nights off and shifts off, which leads to clunkers like the 4-1 loss to the Bruins last night. The Islanders epitomize the classic NHL tease—showing you signs of dominance while mixing in some lazy inattentive play. It makes you wonder had the Isles kept their word and come out skating and hitting (aka outworking) their opponents every game, then they might be sitting atop the Atlantic Division today. And so far, that’s still not beyond a possibility. Last night’s game should signal to Coach Nolan that the Isles cannot afford to take shifts off if it hopes to win the Atlantic Division.

I mean, who cares if the Isles outwork their opponents on 60% of their games and sneak into the 8th spot and get blown out in the first round? The hockey world doesn’t remember those teams just as they don’t remember the Isles of last season. That is shown by every expert predicting the Isles to finish last in the league this year once again. On the other hand, the hockey world does remember those teams that weren’t supposed to go anywhere, yet pull it together in order to make a deep Cup run, a la the Edmonton Oilers a few seasons back. This needs to be the goal of the New York Islanders franchise—to make a run at the Cup. Presently, it seems an Isles’ season can be deemed a success if we slip into the playoffs and last at least 5 games in the first round (no brooms!). Everyone considers last season a success. Will it be a success if the Isles duplicate that performance this season? Probably. Makes you wonder what happened to the idea of building on the previous season.

The Isles inability to outwork opponents is evident in the streaky goal scoring of its top forwards (which is probably more nonexistent than streaky). Let’s take a peek at some of the Isles “top-6” forwards as of late.

Mike Comrie – 1 goal in his last 11 games
Miro Satan – 1 goal in his last 15 games
Josef Vasicek – 1 goal in his last 19 games
Ruslan Fedotenko – 1 goal in his last 12 games, 2 in his last 31
Sean Bergenheim – 1 goal in his last 13 games, 2 in his last 39
Trent Hunter – 1 goal in his last 17 games, 3 in his last 38

Each of these players above has seen ample time on the Isles first and second lines. And each of these players’ goal scoring is mostly nonexistent. Yes Tank and Hunter have seen more 3rd line duty recently, but each is still given plenty of time on the PP and should therefore be analyzed as a top forward. These guys simply don’t get the job done offensively and it’s time to give others a shot. Why not insert Blake Comeau on the PP instead of a Comrie or a Hunter? Yes Comrie is creative and Hunter can dig pucks out of the corner, but look at the stats I just divulged! NONE OF THOSE PLAYERS HAS AT LEAST TWO GOALS IN THE PAST 11 GAMES!

Trent Hunter is becoming more and more replaceable as this season progresses. I hope the Isles don’t make the same mistake that they made with Jason Blake last season. Ship Trent out for a 2nd rounder at the deadline, and let him take his puck-digging abilities elsewhere. There’s got to be a puck-digger somewhere out there who can score. Or even occasionally score.

DP has looked at bit rusty and only has one win in his last 5 starts to show for it. Perhaps it’s from being overworked, but it more and more looks like he’s struggling with some sort of knee injury but refuses to go down and miss his first all star game. Hopefully this decision won’t backfire on the Isles’ season.

19 comments:

Candyman said...

Bill's post from last thread...

Bill said...
Bruins 4 Isles 1

Not DP's finest hour tonight. He let in a few tough ones. Hey, the guy stands on his head most nights. He's bound to have a clunker once in a while.

I did think that the Bruins game plan was to push the Isles all over the ice and they did just that. In the first period they out hit us something fierce. Maybe it's just me, but I am getting the feeling that the word is out that the Isles can be pushed around physically.

Another concern is the lack of ability of any of the forwards to finish. The Isles had plenty of chances tonight. Tonight was not like their usual 30 perimeter shots
on goal. They had some real quality chances in front of the net, so I guess that was a good sign.

How about Blake Comeau? He was all over the ice tonight and had his best game as an Islander. This kid is just getting better and better as he adjusts to the NHL. You would think that the brain trust might take note of Comeau's play and see if some of the other young guns can match his work.
Hope springs eternal....Bill

January 25, 2008 1:35 AM

Candyman said...

Nyisles82's post from last thread...


Nyisles82 said...
Bill- I agree very very much about the physicality part. And what makes it more perturbing is that physical play was (or should have been) the Isles' bread & butter. Just as it was before the lockout: if you're not skilled, you better be willing to sacrifice the body. So many players made their careers doing that, and there was nothing wrong with it. The Isles, without a top-flight scorer, should be doing that night in and out. Hunter gets credit for being in the top 5 in hits every season, but as the year has progressed, his bone-crunching hits which I used to love have become quite infrequent. When Freddy Meyer laid the last hit I can remember, and it happened 5 games ago, thats a concern.

Remember the Ottawa game- I think the first one? The Isles came out and simply handed it to their skill players. Every opportunity to hit resulted in someone in red & black getting a bruise. Lo and behold, we won that game against (at the time) the best team in the league. Last night was just the opposite! They better get back to their game-plan of outworking and out hitting their opponents, and look to do it WITHOUT Simon!

I think we're all real impressed with Comeau this season. He's been one consistent shining point in an otherwise up-and-down season. Makes you wonder for sure who else could play like that...

More and more I'm desiring a sale. Over on HockeyBuzz someone commented that the Isles can't rebuild like other teams, because a few more years of bad bad hockey would result in the team being moved. First, I disagree with that- no way the team moves before the lease is up. Second, with the top line in BP doing so well, the availability of such great FA's this season, and so many 1 year rental players to give up for picks in this year's deep draft- we could rebuild in a very short time. Short as in 1 year. Think about it- Tamby-Neilsen-Okposo come up next year. We draft a few 'older' prospects in addition to the typical 18 y.o.- 19/20/21 y.o. European guys who could be ready in a year. Bring in one or two bona fide scorers via FA, and I'd be real excited about the team- and they could all play in less than 1 year. Thoughts?

(Lets hope Snowy reads this! :))

shinkdew said...

I agree with most of that. The only line that showed up to play was the fourth line. Meyer, Gervais and Bergeron all had tough games too. Gervais has been terrible the last three games.

DiPietro's comment in today's Newsday article pretty much sums it up: "We've shown signs of being a really good team, and we've shown signs of being really bad at times."

shinkdew said...

hockeysfuture.com did an update on the Islanders' NCAA prospects.

Anonymous said...

Just out of curiosity, what exactly do you expect from a player who makes one and a half million a year?.

Perhaps a guy who averages more than a half a point a game? A guy who finishes in the top five in the league in hits. Kills penalties? Play against the other teams best forwards?

I see Hunter replacing Hilbert as the whipping boy on this board. Hunter is not the problem on this team.

Teams are built on the backs of players like Hunter who do all the little things it takes to win. He is not the one breaking the bank here and not producing.

I would love to see the how the rest of the leagues 1 1/2 million dollar players compare to Hunter.

Hunter has 26 points. Satan has 27 and is making almost 3 times Hunters salsry.

Guerrin has 28 points and IS making 3 times Hunters salary. That's 3 million bucks for 2 points.

Hunter is what he is. A good penalty killer. A good corner man and an occasional scorer. But he is the foundation of what good teams are built on. He is doing exactly what he is being paid to do.

If you want to see who is underachieving look elsewhere....Bill

Candyman said...

If Hunter is merely a good corner man and a good PK man etc. then why does he see a tremendous amount of PP time? Why was he the first man moved to the first line after Nolan disbanded the Guerin-Comrie-Tank line?

Comparing Hunter to Isles' castaways doesn't help your case either. There's no doubt that Hunter is valuable to a team. The question is what kind of money will he be looking for next season. And what kind of money will he get? It is for those reasons I would trade him at the deadline.

Nyisles82 said...

Ok gentlemen, I had to do it.

Here is a rank ordered list of the most productive players on the Isles.

This is salary/points this season. Obviously this does not include Bates, DP, Dubie, and Johnson (the first and last have not scored a point this season for the team).

Park: 22619
Campoli: 33333
Vasicek: 39473
Gervais: :47500
Bergenheim: 50000
Hunter: 59615
hilbert: 65000
Martinek: 70000
Sillinger: 84615
Berard: 90625
Comrie: 93750
Comeau: 100000
Jackman: 125000
Fedotenko: 126086
Simon: 158333
Guerin: 160714
Satan: 166666
Meyer: 175000
Sutton: 357142
Bergeron: 423352
Witt: 466666
Sim: 1000000
Total salary for the 2007-2008 Isles: 41,731,300 (yes, yes, this includes Yashin's buy-out, and Snow's $750,000)

I did the exact same for the Detroit Red Wings (deleted Derek Meech b/c he has yet to score a point):

Cleary: 17905
Hudler:31719
Flippula:32692
Zetterberg:43443
Samuelsson:44444
Ledba:59091
Holmstrom:66176
Kopecky:71429
Franzen:72462
Ellis:79167
Lilja:100000
Datsyuk:115517
Kronwall:120000
Chelios:121429
Drake:137500
Rafalski:139535
Draper:141867
Maltby:147222
Lidstrom:165217
Downey:525000
Total Wing's salary 07-08:
43,764,166

I'll comment more on this in the morning, but hopefully you all can see the problem...we're paying players who aren't producing. When Pavel Datsyuk is making a similar amount of money per point scored as Jackman and Comeau, you know we're not looking good.

Bill, if it's possible, I'll try to post something soon re: this statistic for other players making 1.5 mill this season.

Anonymous said...

Justin, The amount of time Hunter sees on the PP is a Coach's decision. It has nothing to do with Hunter. Nolan obviously sees something he likes in using Hunter on the PP.
Take it out on Nolan, not Hunter. If he is being misused, blame the coach, not the player.........Bill

Candyman said...

That's fair, and obviously Nolan doesn't know what he's doing and misuses Hunter. What kind of money are you ready to sign Hunter for? And for how many years? B/c if you're not ready to offer him up a contract then he's got to go at the deadline.

Anonymous said...

Justin, I think that Hunter should get 3 or 4 years at an average of 1.75 to 1.90.
A 4 year deal at 7 million would be about right in my eyes. Perhaps a bit more for signing long term. Maybe 7.25 to 7.50.

If Hunter is allowed to go Free Agent, he will be in great demand because he fills so many roles and rarely is injured. He is cost effective.

If he decides to leave, I believe that he will end up in Calgary or Edmonton where they appreciate his type of player and where he would be close to home. Keenan especially loves to collect "Hunter" type players...Bill

Candyman said...

And if I thought Hunter could be had for that type of money, I would undoubtedly sign him. But I can picture one of the teams you mentioned giving Hunter a 3 year 9 million contract, at $3 mil per year. I don't think Hunter is worth that.

Candyman said...

After DP's last breakaway, Jeff and I just heard him mutter on live tv: "I just bleeped up my hip again"


Not good Rick.

shinkdew said...

He said it after the first competition he was in too. I wouldn't read too much into it. He had few other comments that I don't think Versus really wanted to hear.

Anonymous said...

Justin,

Chris Drury 32 points -13 rating

Trent Hunter 26 points -11 rating

That's one miliion bucks per point the Rangers are paying Drury over Hunters production. Priceless....Bill

Candyman said...

Hahahahha wow that's great!

J Picker said...

I think Rick is fine, after doing my morning media run through. This quote just about sums up what happened to Rick last night.


"You sit around for that long and try to come out there and throw the splits around and everything else, it's a little hard on the body," he said. "But I feel all right."

My guess is that Rick has come to deal with playing with a certain amount of pain in that hip that he had surgery on last season and probably felt that Versus would do a better job of turning on and off his microphone.

shinkdew said...

For those that care, Tambellini will be participating in the AHL Skills Competition tonight at 7PM. He's supposed to participate in the Fastest Skater, Rapid Fire and Breakaway Relay events.

Geoffrey Matthew said...

Here are my predictions and most of you will probably disagree and not like what I have to say.

As for the Atlantic Pittsburgh is going to win the division followed by the Rangers, Philly, Devils and the Islanders will finish last. As I said 2 months ago the islanders simply don’t have enough offense to make the playoffs. You can’t expect DP to steal the game every night.

I told Jeffery and Justin a few weeks ago my pick for the southwest is Washington they are going to surprise most and come on top of that division. Atlanta finishes second Carolina third Tampa 4th and Florida last.

Ovechkin (who arguably is better then Crosby) is going to win MVP easily epically after Washington wins the South East. The Northeast is tuff because Montreal is very talented and extremely fast. Ottawa doesn’t have a lot of goaltending and I expect that division to come down to the wire. Montreal will be a tuff team to play in the playoffs. I wouldn’t be surprised in the win the division mostly because Emery and Gerber suck

1. Ottawa
2. Montreal
3. Buffalo
4. Boston
5. Toronto

To the west lets start with Detroit. They are clearly the best team in hockey but like the best team in the east they have a major flaw…. Goaltending. Yes Hasek and Osgood have great records and great GAA however lets be honest but Osgood on the Islanders and he would have the worst GAA in the league. We saw in the all-star game Osgood is old and not very good. Same with Hasek.

Central
1. Detroit
2. Columbus
3. St. Louis
4. Nashville
5. Chicago

Northwest
1. Min
2. Colorado
3. Vancouver
4. Calgary
5. Edmonton

Pacific
1. San Jose
2. Dallas
3. Anaheim
4. Phoenix
5. LA

Notes

The rangers are going to start to gel. They remind me of the Yankees from last year. A lot of talent and a lot of injuries. They will start to win a lot of games they are just too talented and Lundquist is too good he will play much better. Montreal will go very far in the playoffs. San Jose will win the Cup. Ovechkin will win MVP. Washington will win the Southeast. The Islanders will miss the playoffs.

Geoffrey Matthew said...

Montreal, San Jose cup. Sharks in 6