Stretch Run

With only 18 games left to play, the New York Islanders sit uncomfortably in 10th place in the Eastern Conference. After going on an improbable six game winning streak, the Isles catapulted themselves back into the playoff picture, only to drop back to back games soon thereafter. Now, not to discredit the Isles most recent surge, but they did run into a good amount of luck in order to keep that streak alive. In my opinion the Isles won 6 games in a row in part because (1) The Flyers underestimated an Isles team that had lost 7 games in a row, (2) Toronto outplayed us only to lose 5-4, (3) Atlanta didn’t want to play us, (4) Nabakov’s head-shot led to some spotty goaltending, (5) Kolzig gave Vasicek a gift, and (6) Tampa Bay missed various chances while being shut out by DiPietro. There’s some truth to the idea that that’s how winning steaks are formed—you have to get a good amount of luck. But from here on out, the Isles have to make their own luck.

The luck seemed to run out when the Isles were badly outplayed in the 3rd period against New Jersey last weekend. The luck did not find its way back the next game when a depleted Pittsburgh team took full advantage of the opportunities it got. Even though the Isles crushed the Penguins in the shot department, I’d say the Penguins had more chances to score than we did. And think about that—think about how hard it is to be out-chanced in a game where you dominate in the shots-on-goal department. Again, this drives us back to the inability of the Isles to generate consistent scoring opportunities.

Last game, Pittsburgh had wide open one-timers and 2-1s, while Malkin constantly penetrated the Isles’ defense—and Pittsburgh took advantage of those opportunities. On the other hand, the Isles maintained puck possession for a majority of the game yet never seemed to create good chances to score. What were some of the best chances? The Satan one-timer? The Bergenheim mishap breakaway? The first led to an easy save and the second did not even result in a shot on goal. The Kid-line did the best job of cycling the puck, and created a goal by driving hard to the net. When then Isles were winning, they were crashing the net and getting that dirty goal. More recently, the Isles seem afraid to pay the price in front.

I have been hard on Trent Hunter in this department, mostly because he is the most built to handle this kind of role. He has the scoring touch and hand-eye coordination to be able to net these kinds of goals. Yet Hunter, who has racked up almost 200 shots on goal, has a mere 8 goals on the year, many of which had seeing eyes or took strange bounces. Having watched Hunter all season, I don’t think his play warrants him having more goals than he actually has. So that begs the question of why isn’t he changing up his plan being that he has a league worst shooting percentage of 4.5%. It’s not like he’s been unlucky.

On a more positive note, the Isles’ PK is among the tops in the East, and there is little I would mess with there. Park, Hilbert, Vasicek, etc. have all done an outstanding job up front, while the Isles blue line has played well enough down low. But the Isles’ PP...oh that dreadful Isles’ PP. It’s like you’re opening up a pickle jar and you turn it one way and it won’t open. So you twist harder and harder and harder, and still nothing. Then you have an epiphany: Oh wait, why don’t I try twisting in the other direction? Well in hockey terms, the Isles are the pickle eaters, and the jar is the PP. The Isles keep trying the same thing, over and over, with no hint of success on the horizon.

Nolan has stuck with Guerin and Comrie (and previously Silinger and Hunter) for way too long on the PP, and this group simply cannot get the job done. Every PP should generate at least one solid shot on goal, where a 5-3 PP should create multiple scoring chances. You won’t score every time, but the Isles do not even produce shots on their PPs nor do they produce scoring chances on their 5-3s. It’s a shame, because converting on your 5-3s can win you games. It’s no surprise the Isles lost the past two games after failing on extended 5-3 opportunities in both contests.

Regarding the deadline, I was disappointed with the non-movement. The six game winning streak ruined all chances for a fire sale, but I do not think Snow did himself any favors by keeping all of Satan, Fedotenko, and Vasicek. In addition, I really think the Isles blew it by not going harder after Bryan McCabe. Word out of Toronto was that the Isles were not even interested on deadline day. The addition of McCabe would have done a number of things towards the rest of the season: (1) It would give the Isles a legitimate PP quarterback, one who has scored close to 60 pts in each of the last three seasons, especially after the Isles unloaded MAB; (2) It would have generated interest/excitement among Isles fans, seeing one of the ones that got away from the Milbury stage back in an Isles uniform; and (3) It would have further solidified the Isles’ blue line for the next few seasons. I’m not sure what exactly Toronto was looking for, but I bet Snow could have got it done without giving up the Isles 1st round pick in this year’s draft.

The poor management referenced by Bill I think points to what we should all expect in the off-season—that July 1st will now become our annual Groundhog Day. I don’t see the Isles as having accomplished too much since last season. The Isles will still be looking to add UFAs this summer, and all indications are that they will struggle in that department unless they blow Hossa away and pay him an outrageous amount. For a team that surprised the world last season making the playoffs at the last possible moment, it’s hard to stomach seeing that same team far worse off than was before.

The Day After Tomorrow

As we close in on 48 hours before Tuesday's trade deadline, us residents of Islanders Country can only imagine which way Snow will move this team. We have all read the countless reports that Snow is neither a buyer or seller for this upcoming deadline but rather a builder. This builder status Snow has taken took its first step when Snow signed Trent Hunter to a 5 yr, $10 million deal on Friday. As we have all discussed over the course of the season, Hunter was a player we all liked when he played in his proper role of 3rd line winger. This deal solidifies that Hunter will be with us for the next 5 years, but also begs the questions as to whether he will be used properly. Personally, I am happy Trent is able to stay on the Island for this contract. I don't believe that the Isles are overpaying him although his lack of production was alarming.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, there are still many moves that this franchise can make. Of the players to be moved include: Comrie, Satan, Vasciek, Fedotenko, Berard and our own favorite MAB.

Mike Comrie: I personally think that moving Comrie at this point would hinder any type of playoff push we are at least attempting to make. Prior to this season Comrie was basically passed around the league like the teams were playing hot potato with him. He has stated numerous times that he enjoys LI and is comfortable on this team. If put on the market, Comrie should be able to have a 1st rounder or a solid prospect in return for him.

Miro Satan: Miro would probably be the most likely to be traded Islander if not for his No Trade Clause. As we have learned with his time on this team, Satan is a very streaky goal scorer at this stage in his career. Over the past couple of games, his play has seemed to picked up (maybe he wants to be traded to a Cup contender), which could only benefit us if he waives his NTC. In return for Satan, we should be able to receive a solid prospect and 2nd or 3rd round pick.

Joe Vasicek: At a more than reasonable price, teams will be calling about Joe V because he wont do much to their cap. If the Isles are serious about making a playoff push, Vasicek is not going anywhere.

Ruslan Fedotenko: Between his hot play of late and his prior playoff experience, I expect Snow to receive many calls regarding Tank. Due to Satan's NTC, Ruslan moves into the spot of Islander most likely to be traded by Tuesday. In return for Ruslan, we are once again looking at solid pick or prospect in return.

Berard and MAB: While each could go in separate deals, I doubt they will be traded unless packaged with one of the above forwards and a mid level prospect to a team looking to unload a marquee player (Tampa and Toronto come to mind).

The Great Simon Debate

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UPDATE: Trent Hunter signs 5 year extension.

The deal is worth approximately $10 million.
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There has been much debate in the hockey world as to whether enforcer Chris Simon should be given a third chance to prolong his career with the New York Islanders. With Simon’s most recent suspension about to expire, and with Isles’ coach Ted Nolan undoubted allegiance, it appears the Isles are ready to welcome Simon back whole-heartedly.

The New York Islanders team website has been promoting this return as some sort of a season-altering event—one that could help turn the Isles around and into a playoff contender. But I view this inevitable return as a franchise-altering event—one that clearly highlights the organizational shortsightedness and the main glaring detriment to Ted Nolan’s coaching career.

For those who have been living in a cave, I will provide you with a recap of Chris Simon’s recent altercations. The time was March 2007, and the Isles were fighting for their playoff lives. A game against the New York Rangers, with whom the Isles were competing with for a playoff spot, was to have a huge impact on the outcome on both teams’ seasons. The Isles had played a strong game, and the score was tied at 1 with about 5 minutes remaining in regulation. Then, after being cleanly checked by Ryan Hollweg, Chris Simon took his stick, and in lumberjack fashion, chopped Hollweg across the face. It was one of the most gruesome attacks in NHL history and it got Simon a record high 25 game suspension. More importantly, it put the Rangers on a 5-minute major power play, one that they ultimately scored on en route to victory. A chance at two hard-earned points ruined by one man’s ill-timed decision to take out his anger in an extraordinary vicious manner.

While many thought that was the end of Chris Simon’s NHL career (in part due to this altercation, but also due to his inability to compete in today’s quicker NHL), Ted Nolan went to the powers that be and requested that Simon be given another chance. He advocated how Simon had learned from his previous mistakes, how Simon was extremely sorry, and how playing hockey meant the world to Simon. Garth Snow and Charles Wang bought this pile of horse manure, and Simon was resigned and eligible to return this season after he finished his suspension from last season.

This season, Simon made his return, and it was very evident that he was far worse off (hockey-wise) than he was last year. He was slower than before and behind on every play. He wasn’t chipping in his usual goal and he certainly wasn’t providing the Isles with any toughness. Yet somehow, he was receiving time on the Isles’ PP. It began to make me wonder whether Simon actually deserved this second chance. He seemed better tempered and less angry, so I believed Nolan when he said we wouldn’t have to worry about another on-ice violent outburst. But Simon was a liability on the ice—his game consisted of constant turnovers and a weak fore-check. This is what first led me to question whether Nolan’s loyalty to Simon was beginning to prevent the former from seeing what was actually transpiring on the ice.

Then Simon’s career took another unfortunate spin. In another close game, and again at the end of the third period, Chris Simon again lost control of his anger and it cost the Isles another game. This time the Isles were trying to stage a 3rd period comeback against divisional rival Penguins, and with the Isles down by 1, Simon attempted to stomp on Jarko Ruutu, using his skate blade as a weapon. The Isles again were forced to kill off a major and again lost the game. Simon received a new record 30-game suspension (breaking his own record from last March), but more importantly proved to me that he hadn’t changed—that he simply might not be capable of changing. Less than 20 games since his last violent outburst, Simon comes back with an even more gruesome attempt to injure another player.

Some can overlook the fact that Simon obviously cannot control his anger and is prone to violent outbursts that put other players in constant danger. They will say violence is a part of the game. (Although I highly doubt the type of violence Simon inflicts is a part of hockey). But can those of you also overlook the fact that Simon is not a team-first guy, but instead a me-first player? Simon has twice received 5-minute major penalties in the last 5 minutes of competitive divisional games, while costing his team both contests. I’ve seen Ted Nolan bench players for taking poorly timed hooking penalties in the first period. I’ve seen Nolan bench players for a 5 game stint after a giveaway during a blowout game. But when it comes to Simon, apparently the usual rules don’t apply.

I’m not sure how a coach can justify having this guy out on the rink, with so few games to play, where every point from here on out matters. The two-points lost against the Rangers last season should have cost the Isles their season as the Isles only squeaked in due to Montreal and Toronto collapsing down the stretch. And if nothing else shows that Ted Nolan plays favorites, this blind loyalty to Simon certainly proves that Nolan will go out on a limb for some, while will leave others to drown on their own.

Simon could have severely injured two different players in less than a year (where only poor aim prevented this). He has put himself above the team and his antics should not be allowed to reenter the Isles locker room. Simon has disgraced the Isles' franchise, by being given a second chance and repaying them with an even more horrifying incident. But it is the Isles who will be disgracing themselves if Simon does don an Isles’ uniform again. It leads me to question the judgment of Nolan, Snow, and Wang, who are the only ones who had enough information to decide if Simon was indeed cured and ready to return this season. Turns out they were wrong once, and I’m pretty sure they'll be wrong again.

Remember that old saying..."fool me once, shame on you...fool me twice, shame on me." The saying stopped there, because nobody has ever been foolish enough to let someone fool them THREE times.

Band-Aid on a Broken Leg

Tonight's 4-3 victory over the Flyers certainly represents the feel-good night the Isles have needed for about a month. They turned in a tremendous effort, outworking the Flyers throughout stretches of the game, while playing the type of up-tempo style that saw the Isles right in the thick of things only a few weeks ago. While I do think the Flyers came out taking the Isles a bit lightly, it was still gratifying to watch many of the up and coming Isles show their stuff--Jeff Tambellini scored on a rocket of a shot, while Sean Bergenheim used his extraordinary speed to chip one in, literally. I thought Nielson and Comeau were effective for the most part as well.

But that's not to say that all is well in Islanders Country. One win in the past 8, and the first at home in 2008 will do just about as much for the Isles as a Band-Aid would do for a broken leg.

While Hunter and Fedotenko snapped prolonged goal draughts, I think tonight's effort signifies that the Isles still could have a shot at reaching the playoffs, even if it parted ways with many of these soon-to-be UFAs. Let's face it, the Isles are never going to be an overly skilled team this season. And if Nolan could assemble a group who would be willing to work harder on a more consistent basis (aka kids who have something to prove), then I like the Isles chances heading down the stretch. I can't see the Isles holding onto Trent Hunter--I don't think there's a chance that Trent accepts the kind of offer Snolang would offer. He will want to test the waters this summer, as is his right. So for that reason, I would part ways with Hunter at the upcoming deadline.

While Mike Comrie has been effective as of late (as he was the first week of the season), let's not forget how many nights Comrie was either invisible or a determent to the Isles. He is still among the worst in the NHL in +/- ratings, and I think he should easily net a 1st round pick at the end of the month. What Comrie can do for the Isles this season and the next few simply doesn't compare to what the 1st rounder might do for the Isles over the next 10 years. He needs to go as well.

I would also like to point out one thing that Garth Snow has done exquisitely for the Isles. Over the summer, Snow did a great job assembling a defensive unit with enough depth and enough skill to endure the vigor of an NHL season. While the Isles have suffered injuries to key defensemen like Witt, Martinek, Gervais, Berard, and a season-ender to Campoli, never have I once felt that the Isles were unprepared to slot in a replacement defenseman. While MAB, Berard, and AJ have all been subject to Nolan's revolving door, the Isles have mostly put forth a consistent defensive effort thus far. Kudos to the Snowman.

Starving

Is there anything that has been left unsaid of the New York Islanders this season? Here on Bleeding Blue and Orange, the regulars have broken down the Islanders in a number of ways. We have suggested line combinations, apportioned playing time, contemplated positional changes, and analyzed statistics. Many of our ideas have been utilized, while some of our most obvious notions have been continually ignored.

We have been advocating a youth movement—an injection of younger players into a lineup filled with aging veterans. The Flyers have been able to turn around a last place team of aging vets to a first place contender this season in merely one year. The Flyers accomplished such a daunting task by making a few key acquisitions via trade (Timonen, Hartnell, and Upshall), one key off-season signing (Brierre), and an injection of youth into their everyday lineup (Richards, Carter, Kukkonen, Coburn, and Downie). It begins to make you wonder is such a turnaround could ever be possible on Long Island.

I can tell you this much, such a turnaround will continue to remain impossible if the Islanders continue to employ a current philosophy of assembling as many “hard-workers” as Snow can find among the leftovers each summer, after all the “real” teams scoop up the “real” players.

The “new” NHL is a league based on speed and skill, and does not emphasize grit and toughness as much as it has in the past (and I’m not implying the Islanders are either gritty or tough anyway). But that’s how the current Isles were built—to outwork you, out-hit you, and make you feel the physical wrath for stepping onto the ice with the New York Islanders. The Isles had done a certain amount of that early on, but that kind of game plan has been missing for quite some time. That’s probably because teams can’t maintain that kind of intense play for an entire season—there comes a point where the overall skill of a team needs to be relied upon to overcome certain deficiencies.

There have been a handful of games this season where the Isles have outworked their opponents throughout an entire 3rd period, only to fall short by one goal. And it must become frustrating when that group of players can’t muster up a goal because that group doesn’t boast one legitimate offensive threat. My overall point is that a team can’t be so one-dimensional. It can’t rely solely on the blue collar aspects of the game, while neglecting to focus on the skills needed to compete in the NHL. It can’t solely rely on a motivating coach to squeeze something out of a team comprised of nothings.

The shortcomings of the Isles are clear and decipherable. Forwards Guerin, Comrie, Hunter, Fedotenko, Vasicek, Satan, and Hilbert have combined for something like 6 goals in their last 125 games (when you combine each of their recent goal droughts). Think about that. 6 goals in 125 games! Guerin, Comrie, & Satan should be 30 goal scorers (let’s say 0.33 GPG), while Hunter and Vasicek should be 20 goal scorers (let’s say 0.25 GPG) and Hilbert and Vasicek should be 15 goal men, considering their minutes (let’s say 0.20 GPG). This averages to 0.27 GPG for those players over the course of a season. They have currently combined for a 0.048 GPG average. So instead of getting a goal from each of those players about every 4 games, we are roughly getting a goal from each of them every 21 games.

Now I don’t mean to point out the obvious. The Isles are clearly starved for offense and that is something that even the novice fan would be able to ascertain. But Nolan could have tried something, anything. He could have used his “magic” to try to squeeze some goals out of the leading goal-scorer in the AHL (Tambellini), instead of bringing him up here and there and giving him less than 10 minutes of ice time. He could have even tried to work him into the Isles PK to create a backdoor approach to gain some offense (Tambellini leads the AHL in short-handed goals as well). He could have tried to work in a speedy and smart two-way center (Walter), instead of giving a boatload of minutes to Mike Silinger, who is so old that he can’t help but break down over the course of the season. He could have demoted Comrie and Hunter from the PP after they proved to the world that they simply could not produce on the PP. But then again, how do you build an engine out of a box full of nuts and bolts.

Here on B&O, I continue to propose that GM Garth Snow disassemble this group. This team as constructed has no future and no promise. Let the fire sale begin.

Who Wants a Nolan?

I apologize for not posting this week, but it’s been a rough week in Islanders Country. The Isles completed the month of January with out a win at home, and are thus winless in 2008 at the NVMC. Games like last night’s contest against the Kings makes me wish I loved football or basketball, and not hockey. The Isles have gotten away from everything that makes hockey enjoyable.

As I first reported on Wednesday afternoon, Ted Nolan assured us that his team would quit trying to score so much so that they might concentrate better on defense. And in that the Isles were certainly successful. The Isles held the Kings (a highly offensive team) to two goals with their backup goaltender manning the crease. But what good is holding your opponents to two goals if you don’t even come close to creating the kind of scoring opportunities that could lead to goals? Against a horrible Kings backup goaltender, the Isles simply couldn’t muster up enough chances to even feel bad about losing this contest. As I have stressed for weeks now, the Isles found a way to lose another close game without forcing the other goaltender to blink at all.

Goaltenders like Chris Osgood are supposed to get easy games like the Isles' opposing goaltenders are getting. Osgood plays in front of a tremendous team that out shoots and out chances its opponents on a regular basis. In that regard, Osgood’s stats become inflated and he becomes an NHL all-star. (Did anyone else thing he looked out of place last weekend?) The Isles offense can make even the worst team in the NHL’s defense look like the Detroit defense.

Looking at the stats, one might fathom that the Kings defense surely held its own against a much better Isles team. (Better only in that the Isles were a playoff team as of last night and the Kings held the worst record in the NHL). The Isles actually out shot the Kings last night, but can anyone really remember any decent save by LaBarbera last night? The guy gave up a weak goal to Berard through his 5-hole from an off angle, and all the Isles can do is cycle, dip-see-doodle, and throw low-percentage perimeter shots at goaltender who has a mere 25 NHL wins since his NHL debut in 2000.

It’s perplexing to me how Mike Comrie is constantly the Isles’ leader in ice time among forwards. Am I watching the same game as Nolan? Comrie is a turnover waiting to happen. He hurts the team way more than he helps them. He was a minus player last night, and I think he is a minus player under any condition. In the same way we see why MAB got shipped out of Edmonton (I still love MAB), it’s very clear to me why Comrie is so well traveled in the NHL. Comrie will net a first rounder at the deadline, and this is a deal on which Garth Snow MUST PULL THE TRIGGER.

Anyone who has opposed my firesale campaign is losing leverage quickly. This team is simply not worth keeping intact and Snow must start to look towards the future. Hey, I’m all about getting a few playoff games come April, but after 4 straight first round knockouts (not counting ’94), it’s time we set our hopes a little higher. The team as is constructed today has no prayer to make its way into the second round of the playoffs. Cleanse this team of its perennial Nolan-type players, because the Isles of today don’t play the game Ted Nolan had in mind. They don’t fight for every puck, they don’t work for chances, and they don’t battle in front of the net. We already have a Nolan-type coach. That should fulfill the quota of Nolans per team. Who wants a Nolan? Nolans for sale. NHL take your pick.