Friday, November 9, 2007

Contract Talk


With an 8-4 record after 12 games thus far, the New York Islanders have managed to elicit both a feeling of euphoria and of paranoia among the Isles community. The euphoria is an easy one to discern—competing with elite teams, sporting a top winning percentage, and beating the Rags twice will surely give fans their money’s worth. But a hot start for the Isles is a double edged sword because it begs the question: Will this be the only year we get to see this group together?

After Garth Snow offered a plethora of one year contracts, this may in fact be the lone year this particular group is allowed to remain intact. Let’s look at some of those players whose contracts expire at the end of this season.

1. Mike Comrie – With 5 goals & 10 assists in the team’s first 15, Comrie has certainly proved to the east coast that he’s the real deal. A very shifty and quick natural center, Comrie has all the tools to be a point-per-game guy for years to come. He’s not going to blast through any goaltenders a la Miro Satan, but Comrie has shown he has a knack for scoring big goals in big spots late in the game. His playmaking skills make any one of the lucky players to get a shift with him that much better. Yet with only 26 shots on goal so far, I’d like to see him get a few more shots off per game. Comrie is superb at making a quick move before releasing a deceptive shot, which keeps goaltenders on edge whenever the puck is on his stick. His contract situation is tricky—he signed a 1 year deal to play alongside his Edmonton buddy Bill Guerin for $3.375 million. We all know Comrie has a boat load of money waiting for him back in Canada, so it’s refreshing to see a player compete at such a high level knowing money is far from a priority. At 27 years old, Comrie is entering the prime of his career. And now that he has proven he can handle the responsibility of being the number one center, Snow needs to lock this guy up for 4-5 years. I would say a ballpark offer should be around $20 million over four years. He would probably command much more than that if he were allowed to test the free agent waters this summer.

2. Ruslan Fedotenko – What Isles fan this year hasn’t been impressed with the play of Ruslan Fedotenko? This guy works his rear off every shift, banging, cycling, shooting, and scoring. His two goal effort in Tampa’s Stanley Cup decisive game 7 victory in 2004 carries a resume of being a big game clutch performer. Tank’s huge tying goal against the Rags this past Tuesday proved that he can play in the big spot in New York. The Tank bashers have been on his case for years, claiming he’s just another prospect bust who will never amount to his potential. On the other hand, the Tank supporters have been commending this guy for years, claiming he’s been playing in the shadows of elite players like Vinny Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis. Good thing Tank has proven the latter to be correct. The hockey world ripped Snow for signing Tank to $2.9 million one year contract after a mere 12 goal effort last year—a 14 goal drop from his previous season’s total of 26 goals. I believe ESPN rated this signing as the WORST of the off season. Thus far, Ruslan has put up better numbers than each of Tomas Vanek, Chris Drury, and Scott Gomez. Each of those players makes more than double what Tank makes. At 28 years old, Tank is the type of guy you go to war with. He seems to be a natural fit with Comrie. My offer is for a 3 year extension at $3.5 million per season.

3. Josef Vasicek – There’s something about this guy that makes you want to root for him. At 27 year’s old, Vasicek is also entering the prime of his NHL career. And with four goals and a plus rating as the team’s number two center, I’d say the Isles are getting their money’s worth here as Vasicek makes less than $1 million per year. He’s crafty, quick, and huge, and you can tell he’s really enjoying his time on Long Island. Radek Martinek, who is Vasicek’s best friend in hockey, is signed through the 2010-2011 season which makes me think Vasicek will be looking for a commitment from Snow. This guy might not end up with as many goals as Victor Kozlov did a year ago, but he sure isn’t prone to as many defensive lapses. I would offer Josef a 2 year extension worth $2-2.5 million per season.

4. Trent Hunter – Good old Trent has been scoring clutch goals for the Isles ever since he arrived on the scene back in the Leafs series of 2002. I’m never going to be a big Hunter advocate, but this guy has shown he can score the big goal in an Isles uniform. Although not blessed with great speed, Hunter makes up for it with a quick release and an uncanny ability to deflect pucks past goaltenders. He battles hard and at 27 years of age, has his best years ahead of him. As one of the longest tenured Islanders, Hunter is worthy of an extension. My offer is for 5 years at $2.5-3 million per season. That would nearly double his salary from this season and keep Trent on Long Island for the foreseeable future.

5. Miro Satan – Miro has seen it all and has played with them all. After a hot start to his Isles career as Alex Yashin’s wingman, Satan has only recently seemed to find his game again. He’s battling, shooting, scoring—scoring the way Miro Satan can score. Not many wingers in the NHL can come from a straight on angle and beat the NHL’s best goaltender with a wrist shot from 30 feet out as Miro did on Tuesday against Lundqvist. Now it’s too early to be thinking long term with Miro, but if February comes around and he’s on pace for a 30+ goal season, then a 3 year extension is a must. Guys who can score consistently in this league don’t grow on trees. We found one and we should keep him. Miro is making $4.5 million this year and will probably not accept a pay cut. I would offer 2 years for $10 million, but my gut is that Miro will test the waters this summer looking for a 4 year deal. I’m not sure the Isles want Miro locked up till he’s 37 years old. Tough call.

Final thoughts: Although Brendan Witt’s contract is not up until after the 2009-2010 season, he has proven to be the heart and soul of the Isles. At that time he will be 34 year’s old. I think Witt has earned himself a 2-3 year extension. He doesn’t rely on speed so I don’t see his age being too much of a factor in his mid thirties, and anyone who has watched Witt play hockey knows he isn’t going to be any less tough the older he becomes. Witt does all the little things—blocks shots, draws penalties, and plays a solid defensive game in front of DP. Speaking of DP, how nice is it (for now) to have an elite NHL goaltender locked up at $4.5 million per year. Charles Wang put his faith in DP and DP has returned the favor. Last but not least is Bruno Gervais. This kid has shown he can play at this level, something we all were unsure of before the season started. Bruno is a RFA this summer, so look for Snow to offer Gervais a multi year contract. My offer is for 5 years at $2 million per season.

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts,

-Justin

19 comments:

Nyisles82 said...

If Snow is able to sign these guys to those contracts, I'm thrilled. I think the numbers are reasonable yet extremely fair.

My concerns are:

1) Long Island, and specifically NVMC. Why play there when you could play in sold out Toronto, right Blake? No one is going to argue our location is a benefit, except for the hockey families. There is probably no better place in the US to live (when making a healthy salary) than LI, but will these guys realize this in the next 2 months?

2) The new CBA and free agency. We all saw what happened last summer, with inflated salaries going to mid-level players. This is the nature of the league now, and without accusing anyone of being greedy, why SHOULDN'T Miro and Comrie see what they can get? It's a scary thought as a fan/owner/coach, but the best thing to happen for the player and agent. Sure, we can try to re-sign them on July 1, but you know some idiot in Toronto or NYC or Denver or Dallas is going to throw case-loads of money at Miro & Mike so they keep their jobs for the rest of the summer. Too bad championships aren't won on July 1st...the Rags would be the Yankees of hockey.

3) Outcome of this season. Right now, there are 4 points separating our entire division. Whoever said this was going to be the toughest devision in hockey should write for ESPN instead of the mullet-heads they have right now. If the Isles (or anyone) come out flat for 2 weeks in a row or so, which I'm worried might happen unless we start rolling a solid 4th line, we're falling far out of this race. This makes the decision come trade-deadline so much more difficult. Sign & trade? Trade prospects/surplus role players/ extra d-men? Stay the course? Obviously, Snowlan have the benefit of expert scouts and inside knowledge, but I'm afraid if the wrong decision is made, our lovely NY media once again seeks to bash the Isles, the fans turn, and everyone becomes the 20/20 hindsight expert on what should have been done (just like last season, and summer). This is tough enough on the owners & coaching staff, but what about the players? It's simple social psychology- no one wants to be associated with a team that everyone makes fun of. If any decisions turn out to be wrong come trade-deadline, we're in trouble when it comes to re-signing these guys and/or new free-agents.

/begin rant

Which is why, gentlemen, we need to be SUPPORTIVE instead of critical of this team. It's always easier to point out the faults in someone than it is to see the positives, but as the loyal fans we are, we need to begin influencing those writers at Newsday & the Post to give credit where credit is due, and start urging others to look at the Isles as a serious and well-run team. If you question the leadership and decision making of the team, please, critique it honestly, but don't throw in the towel. Players can sense this and don't want to be here. It starts with us!

/rant

Nyisles82 said...

PS. A fantastic blog entry by BD on HockeyBuzz...which I swear I didn't read before writing my comments!

shinkdew said...

It would be nice if we could sign these guys to these contracts. I'm pretty sure Comrie will test free agency. He'd be crazy not to. At the same time, he doesn't really need the money, so maybe he won't. I don't think Fedotenko or Vasicek will be a problem unless Snow offers them a real lowball deal. Gervais will probably be given the same deal Campoli got. He probably won't sign anything longer than 3 years. I'm not entirely sold on signing Satan. He's a streaky player on a hot streak right now. We'll see how many of you are wanting to sign him when he goes on a 10 game scoreless streak:)

Candyman said...

Shinkdew,

Right on, regarding Satan. It's definitely a love/hate relationship, but right now it's all love.

I think Gervais might command more than what Campoli received only b/c Campoli got that deal after a very subpar season. Seems unfair to Camps thought.


The aforementioned players indeed should test free agency if money was the perogative. For Comrie, I don't think it is. He wanted responsibility and stability, and I think he can find that on Long Island. The rest have more of a reason to see what else is out there.

J Picker said...

I think Comrie is going to stay with us for the long haul. Think about it, he has been shipped around the league and most of North America before we signed him this past offseason. We were the first team to give him alot of ice time and so far its been nothing but greatness.

With Martinek and Vasichek being such great buddies, I honestly don't see him leaving. Bruno will be locked up similar to what Campoli signed for.

Yes our building hinders us bringing in free agents, but the wheels are in motion for the remodeling of the arena and the redevelopment of land surround NVMC. Let's also not forget the ace that we have in Nolan. Players have nothing but great things to say. Hopefully these players with one year contracts realize we are trying to restore our franchise to the mindset of the early 80's when we were so dominant and not the mid-late 90's when we were the laughing stock of the NHL.

Another reason some of these players won't leave is Rick. When there is a goalie behind you that can keep you in 95% of the games he start as well as steal games that the team has no reason to win at all, makes you want to play on that team.

It also helps when former players can only complain to the media how much they miss this place. (Thanks Blake)

Nyisles82 said...

I strongly disagree with Comrie making choices over his financial situation. His contract situation needs to be looked at entirely without how much he's getting from Dad. Coming to the Isles he expressed disappointment, and felt jealousy from other teams over how they handled the situation. He's a professional player, and needs to be paid market value. Just because he has a large inheritance, doesn't mean he's not going to want to maximize his contract/worth. He's playing well, playing hard, and showing the league he can be a 1st line Center- something no one else wanted to give him the opportunity to do. He should be rewarded the exact same as someone who grew up on food stamps in Northern Alberta.

Good point re: Satan. If he's heading for 30 goals this year, do we dangle him for trades, even if we're in the thick of things? I guess an immediate disadvantage is we enter into the same situation as Blake, where the player feels spurned, and goes somewhere else out of spite (and potentially more money).

Candyman said...

Nyisles,

I guess you misinterpreted my and Jeff's point regarding Comrie. Just b/c money is not his top priority, that does not mean he should be paid less that what he deserves. All I'm saying is that some players value other things aside from money. Comrie probably likes the stability and responsibility he can attain on Long Island. Curt Shilling recently took probably $4-5 million less so he could play for a winner and not move his family and take his kids out of school. Joe Torre turned down a guaranteed $5 million because that contract included incentives which he found insulting.

Comrie might opt not to take advantage of a poor class of free agents in order to get overpaid along the likes of Gomez, Souray, etc. He likes being the Isles "go-to" guy. In addition, how many teams could he sign with where he would be the true number one center?

You obviously don't pay him less b/c he has family wealth, but it's definitely a factor in the equation regarding what's important to Comrie.

Anonymous said...

Guys, if we learned anything from last year it is that it is all about the MONEY. All the rest is fluff.

Garth got stuffed last year because he lowballed players and lost them. Hopefully, he learned from that situation and will present this years group with market level or above contracts.

I thought I read that Vasicheck and Satan were best buddies and came from the same town. Not Martinek. Perhaps, my memory fails me.

As for Comrie, I just have this gnawing feeling that he is a "bright lights/big city" kind of guy. I see him in L.A. or (gasp) Broadway if the offer is right.
I hope I am wrong here but, I can't shake this feeling about him.

Snow saved 10 million bucks so far this year. There is no reason he should not spend it on extensions for the guys who are rowing the boat.....Bill

Candyman said...

Amen I hope he does. Although I'm happy Blake got the low ball offer he received.

It's Martinek, I'm 100% positive.

shinkdew said...

Bill, I was going to tell you the Rangers wouldn't be able to afford Comrie. I didn't realize they have 16 players who will be free agents at the end of the season. 10 UFAs and 6 RFAs. All of their defensman except Pock and Staal are going to be free agents.

I'm hoping Snow gives them competitive offers.

Nyisles82 said...

Very very interesting article on HockeyBuzz about the economic state of the NHL. We're pretty much heading right back where we came from.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=10948

Anonymous said...

We're forgetting one guy here. Mike Sillinger's contract is up at the end of this season. If the Isles don't sign him to an extension they're crazy. He brings so much to this team it's ridiculous. I'd give him a 2 year deal.

isles14

shinkdew said...

Sillinger's contract isn't up until after next season. I highly doubt the Islanders will resign him.

shinkdew said...

That hockeybuzz article is interesting. I've said all along that the only reason the cap has gone up is the strength of the Canadian currency. When the US dollar rebounds, the league is going to have problems.

Candyman said...

If Silinger's contract were up tomorow I'd throw myself a pizza party.

Does anyone think Ben Walter could handle centering that line?

Nyisles82 said...

Freddy Meyer picked up by the Isles? What? Why?

Hopefully a nice large trade package to bring in Jovo or perhaps Jokinen? :)

Candyman said...

Probably just an insurance b/c AJ is out...I don't see him seeing any time, especially with Berard's return looming...I don't see any team looking to acquire Freddy bein that hes been available for free this season

Anonymous said...

Man, it's nice to win, but could that game have been any more BORING.ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ....Bill

PIGSKINSANDPUCKS said...

Bill,

Who cares?:)

I'll take any boring game as long as it results in a big inter-division win.

Sorry, Marty...500 will have to wait!

-Frank