Looking into the Crystal Ball
During this roller coaster of an offseason, we have seen plenty of changes to the Islanders roster. Even though we lost 5 of our top 7 scorers from last season, I actually believe we will score more this season then last. Last year we scored a total of 248 goals for the season. Here are my predictions for goals for the upcoming season.
Guerin - 33
Comrie - 27
Fedentenko - 23
Satan - 29
Sills - 28
Hunter - 26
Hilbert - 15
Sim - 20
MAB - 17
Bates - 11
Park - 10
Simon - 8
Campoli - 5
Gervais - 3
Radek - 6
Witt - 2
The Wild Cards of the Offense:
Tambs - 15 (8)
Bergy - 20 (12)
If you add these totals up you get 298 goals for this upcoming season. The numbers for Tambs and Bergy in the ( ) are my predictions if they get less than expected playing time which is a definite possibility. Even with their reduced playing time, the total goals scored would be 283. So while we may not have gotten that star player that everyone and myself dreamed and wishes we would have signed or traded for, the reality is our offense is balanced and without the puck hogging of Blake and the defensive lapses of Blake, Yashin, and Kozlov who were by far our laziest forwards in our own end last season, the mistakes in our own end should be cut down. When you add both of these together, I believe we will not only score more this season but also play better in our own end as well if we sign Markov or any other defensive dman. Otherwise these extra goals will amount to nothing as we will be pushed around our zone with all our undersized defensemen.
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14 comments:
J --
Wow when you put it like that, we no longer look like a team of 4th liners.
I like and agree with all your numbers. Your pick on Comrie is right on. If he stays healthy, he scores 30 if he plays 70 games.
I have some slight takes. Being a contract year for Satan, I wouldnt be surprised if he hit 35 this year.
Also I think the Sillinger at 28 might be a bit lofty. After all, it would have to be a career year for him to hit that.
I want more out of Bates. In spite of the heart and soul he brings, and with his speed, I see no reason why he shouldnt(FINALLY) be able to crack 20.
I think Federenko could only improve his numbers(ONCE AGAIN I RESPECTFULLY DISAGREE WITH MY FRIEND BILL)minus marty and brad and vinny.
A healthy Martinek will work wonders for the numbers.
Less than two months I cant wait. Thanks for helping me pass the time.
man, it's going to be tough for Witt to DOUBLE his goal output fromlast year!
J, Sorry, but those numbers are totally unrealistic (except for Witt). I'll refrain from commenting, except to say hold onto thase predictions and lets repost it at the end of the year and see how accurate it was.
I'll guess you are off by 30+ goals.....Bill
One question...who is going to dish the puck to Satan for him to score that many times?
Laffs,
I believe Sillinger can hit the 28 mark due to the face that him, hunter and hilbert will probably being given even more time on the ice this year then last. The only reason I didn't predict Bates with a higher number is not because of his talent and effort but more because he has what I like to call Ken Griffeyitis (the get hurt every year curse)
Bill,
Hopefully we will be seeing Bergs on a line with Satan most of the year. If that happens don't be surpised if both Bergs and Satan have monster years. Satan would benefit greatly from playing with a speedy center. How can my numbers be unrealistic, I took each players numbers from last season, then predicted what they would do this year based on their stats from last season and the projected playing time given player would recieve.
Also please don't refrain from commmenting, I don't care if we disagree, 1. its all in good fun and 2. what else is there to do during the summer for hockey other then agrue; at least I realize that you know what you are talking about and are not one of those idiots from the newsday blog.
J, I think that your top six are all off by 4 or five goals each.
I also don't see Hilbert hitting 15
or Sim hitting 20. Hilbert had so many chances to score last year and missed 90% of them. He has stone hands.
Bergenheim is not a scorer either. So far in his career, he has shown me nothing except that he may be a decent penalty killer. Now, he is a young player and may improve. I would be pleasantly surprised but there is potential there. Let's hope so.
Surprisingly, I think your contributions from the D is low. MAB will hit 15 and I think Campoli and Gervais will both hit 10 goals if they get PP time.
The one player who I think will really shine is Tambellini. If Nolan gives him time on the second or third line, I believe he will have a breakout year and hit 20. He is a talented player much along the lines of Comrie.
My one criticism of Nolan is that he underuses the younger players. He relies way too much on the Simon's and Hilbert's. I would love to see Tambellini with Hunter and Sillinger.
Finally, I don't always want to be the bringer of doom, but I have to "call 'em like I see 'em".
I have been watching hockey since the days of the six team NHL. I also played the game for many
years (I stunk), but I do understand the dynamics of the game.....Bill
Bill is dead on with regards to Hilbert. He should by all accounts be able to hit 15, but i can remember pulling my hair out watching him miss the net last year. That first game in Montreal being a prime example.
I got a question for you guys.Are there plans to use Petteri Nokelainen this year? I believe he was our first draft pick in 04, and in the early season last year, he showed some promise. What exactly is his status?
And lastly to Bill----please dont ever hold off responding, regardless of how much some might not agree. Its obvious you know alot about this team, and along with the 2 j's and yourself, ive learned alot about this upcoming campaign. KEEP IT UP!!!!
Bill,
I understand that you couldn't hit 15 but lets remember this...Hilbert had 8 goals last year and probably lead the league in posts hit. I figure this number to be about 15 posts. For the sake of predicting I took his goals from last year (8) and then said he should be able to hit half of the posts that he hit last season (7) and there is my 15.
As for Sim, he did have 17 goals last season and I believe that he will be seeing more ice time this season then he did last year in Atl. Based on that alone, I probably unpredicted his goal total (not by much) but 20 goals is probably where he will end up.
As for Bergenheim, he is way more then a decent penalty killer. I hope you get to see that this year. Both in the AHL and the SEL league last season, Bergenheim scored in roughly 40% of his games. In his last season in the bridge (05-06), he had 47 points in 55 games with 25 goals. Last season playing in the SEL he put up 33 points in 36 games with 16 goals. Also I hope you remember that ridiculous goal he had I think back in 03-04 where he literally jumped around the defender and scored. I will try and find the video and put it up later. It will make you think twice as Bergs as being just a decent penalty killer.
Campoli is much more likely to hit 10 goals then Bruno. For Bruno to get 10 goals, alot of things would need to happen. The biggest is actually developing a shot. If Bruno was being solely judged on his shot, he probably would have never even made it to the Bridge.
As crazy as it sounds, I would rather Tambellini play with Geurin and Comrie. I just have this feeling that have those 3 player together could be something special. Lets also not forget that Hunter-Sills-Hilbert was our best and most consisent line last year. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Laffs,
The last I heard about Nokes is that is progressing nicely from his knee injuries. I think it would be in his best interest to take this season down at the bridge with the call up to the big time when injuries come thru. This will allow him to fully develop his game and make sure his knee is 100%.
Comrie and Tambellini are way too much alike to play together. Having Hunter and Sillinger to finish would increase Tambellini's value. His skill is as a passer and playmaker. Combined with Hunter and Sillinger (who are both decent finishers), I believe that Tambellini would top 50 points this year.
As for Hilbert, there is a good reason that he scored 8 goals last year. He simply cannot finish. This is exactly the reason that Pitt cut him loose.
I have seen every game Bergy has ever played in the NHL, and I am not impressed. He is one of those players who is a lot of motion but never gets anything done. The Swedish League is the triple A of hockey. Lots of players have had great years there, and done nothing in the NHL (Jorgen Jonnson comes to mind).
However, to be fair to Bergy, I don't think he was ever used correctly by Sterling. He may indeed have matured and could go on to have a good season. The jury is still out on him.
Sim had a fluke year last year (much like Blake). There is nothing in his past to indicate that he will be a consistant scorer. But again, to be fair, somebody in the Isles organization must have seen something they liked to sign him for 3 years. Let's see what he can do in Blue and Orange.
I just have this feeling that Bruno will get his goals from the point on the PP. They may be floaters, but they count, too....Bill
Sims didn't have a fluke year last year. He scored 17 goals because it was the first time he played more than 48 games in a season. I think he'll score 20 goals if he can stay healthy the whole season, which appears to be his biggest question mark. I posted on hockeybuzz how I thought the Islanders would replace the scoring they lost. I try to post it.
This is what I posted on hockeybuzz, looking at I realize I forgot Robitaille, and didn't include Tambellini, who I think if given enough ice time may be able to score 15:
The Islanders lost 101 goals (Smyth-5, Kozlov-25, Blake-40, Zednik-7, Potl-6 and Yashin-18). This is how I think they'll make them up:
Comrie -25
Guerin - 30
Fedotenko - 15
Sim - 15
Bergenheim -15
I think Fedotenko, Sim and Bergenheim are all capable of scoring 20 which would pick up any slack if Comrie can't score 25 and Guerin can't score 30.
Sorry been gone for a few...here's my take...I think Jeff may have over-estimated some of our forwards, yet underestimated some of our defenseman...
Guerin should be good for solid 30, so the 33 is fair. Comrie I think can hit 35 so 27 might have sold him a bit short. 23 is fair for Tank. 25-30 for Satan so 29 is fair. Sill prob won't hit 28, 21-22 is probably more likely. Huter should hit 25, and Sim should/could hit 20.
Hilbert WILL NOT hit 15. Mostly because, Hilbert is terrible. 7-8 is probably a better prediction.
MAB will lead all defenseman in goals this season. 24 for MAB. Bates 11, Park 10, fair fair. Campoli 5? If Campoli plays the entire season look for him to rack up 12-14 goals. Gervais 5-8. Radek wont hit 6, 2 is more likely. Witt with 2? Whatttttttttt? 1 at the most.
Goaltender predictions/analysis tomorrow...
Did you guys hear what happened over at Eklund's board?
Islandermania.com planted a false rumor that Markov would be signed today (e4) to prove that Ek allegedly just trolls the message boards as his "sources". He reported it as near-fact and now they're calling him out on it.
I like Ek's board, but I treat it more as entertainment, really. If I had a nickel for every E4 that didn't come true, I'd have about $114 right now:)
"It's gold, Jerry...GOLD!"- Kenny Banya
-Frank
Yes I saw that as well. I knew something was fishy about the whole situation on islandermania. The face that people take Eklund seriously is a joke itself. If we did some math on the amount of times Eklund was actually right about something it would be no more then 4%. My prediction of Witt getting 2 goals this season has a much higher chance of being correct than any of Eklunds garbage
I don't put much stock in Eklund's posts either. A lot of times the things he posts don't make sense.
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