All About You - Markov, McCabe, Peca, Weiss etc.
It's nice to see an extremely knowledgeable and classy group of Isles fans frequenting this site. Here is my overall take on all of the lingering issues we have all been discussing:
1. Markov - A better than average defensive defenseman, many believe Markov's stats and his defensive play have been inflated while playing alongside the best defenseman in the NHL. While playing with Lidstrom would surely raise Markov's plus/minus for example, let's not lose sight of the fact that he was still an above average defenseman when he began his career with the Leafs in 1997. Markov was only a member of the Wings for one season, so it's not like Lidstrom has been carrying him for his entire career. That being said, Markov is still just an above average defensive defenseman and shouldn't command more than $2.5-3.0 million per season. Once we start talking about giving Markov in the range of $4 million, then I think we've lost perspective on true player value. Also, keep in mind that Markov has only played in 70 or more games twice in his 10 years in the NHL.
2. McCabe - A below average defenseman, McCabe proves his worth by his outstanding offensive production. Caber has averaged 60 points over his last 3 seasons. The Isles haven't had a 60 pt producer from the blue line in a long long long time. McCabe, in comparison to Markov, has played in 70 or more games 10 times in his 11 years in the NHL (that's 8 more than Markov). Many of you liken McCabe to Sheldon Souray and Souray's horrible plus/minus. Believe it or not, McCabe was a +3 last year on a defensively weak Toronto team. McCabe is also a career +39 (which includes a -24 rating in his rookie year on a horrible 1996 Isles team). McCabe also WANTS to come back to the Islanders. I guess it's just me, but McCabe seems like the perfect fit for the Isles' blue line. You can cite his defensive lapses and all that, but the truth is McCabe was on the ice for more goals scored than goals allowed. Add that to his power play production (11G, 23A) and I think we've found a match. In terms of helping Toronto out with their cap situation, I think the Isles should worry more about building their own team rather than how taking on a player's contract might help that team. I mean, if every team worried so mightily about helping the other team in a trade, then trades would never occur in sports.
3. Peca - I have been an advocate of bringing back the former Isles captain for quite some time. But I feel like a worm in an ant farm. Peca doesn't seem to want to come back and the Isles management doesn't seem to want to bring him back. All of this, while we are starving for a second line center who would fit in Ted Nolan's system. Doesn't make any sense to me.
4. Weiss - He could turn out to be a steal if he could be had for the right price. The Isles are desperate for offense. We only have 2 players right now who we can hope will be consistent offensive contributors: Guerin & Comrie. Who knows what Hunter will provide and I wouldn't pencil Fedotenko in for anything more than 20 goals. That's it. No one else on the Isles roster has the potential to score more than 20. Tambellini, Bergenheim? They haven't proved they could score at the NHL level before. Satan perhaps, but his production seems to be on the decline. The team as of now consists of way too many 3rd/4th line caliber players, and not enough players with some decent scoring potential.
Bill has made some excellent points. The 3rd/4th line grinder roles could easily have been filled by Park, Tambellini, Nok, Nielson, etc, all of whom were under contract for this season. It makes you wonder why Snow felt so inclined to bring back Hilbert and Simon and to offer Sim a nice contract. And all this while Asham sits at home with out a contract, and is probably the best 3rd/4th liner of this entire crew.
BUT, there is still time and more importantly, there is still money to spend. As training camp draws nearer, it makes us wonder when Snow will finally make the next splash. You know, the one we expected at the press conference in early July when all we got was the news of Bill Guerin being named captain. TBC...
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26 comments:
Not only must we take a serious look at Weiss, but also any of the other young rfa's who look to be on the outs with their clubs.
I actually very happy that we have not signed and most likely will not pursue Peca. Don't get me wrong when we first traded for him, I loved him and he led this team that first year and we probably would have won that series against TOR if not for that dirty play by Tucker. Since suffering that knee injury, Peca is only a shell of his old self. We all keep complaining that we have way to many 3rd/4th liners and I truly believe that Peca in today's NHL would fall into those two lines rather then 2nd/3rd line. A few players that are UFA's that I would consider signing over Peca would include: Jason Allison, Josef Vasicek, Adam Hall, and Patrick Stefan.
Regarding defenseman, Markov should be our number 1 target, but if his asking prices remains to high, then we have to stop playing the waiting game with him and sign some of the UFA's or make a trade to finalize our d-corp for the upcoming season. I personally would like to stay away from McCabe largely because of his contract. Didn't we just free ourselves from a bad contract. I don't think picking up a new one is the smartest way to go when we are trying to build a contending team. It's not like McCabe is getting any younger either. A few defensemen to look at include Andy Sutton, David Tanabe, Nolan Pratt and maybe even Jason York
(This is the part where Jeff and I battle it out and count on all of you to settle the score)
Jeff, (as if I really needed to respond to you via posting)
I think your take on Peca is more than fair. My only inclination to sign Peca would be to take a chance on a player who really could help the team. It's sort of a low-risk, high-reward type of thinking.
Also, you remark that McCabe isn't getting any younger but then you want to look at Sutton or Pratt or even York. Sutton and Pratt are both older than McCabe and York is 37! While picking up bad contracts is indeed not a good way to build a contending team, this team will never contend with out contending-type players.
BRING BACK MCCABE!
How can I argue the age of players, but I guess what I should have said is that McCabe is more of an offensive minded dman, I believe we have enough of those already and we really need a defensive dman. I would rather us sign a defenseman who is a liabilty on the offensive side of the puck rather then the defensive side
I guess I would just rather have the better overall player. Mainly, I would rather have McCabe over Markov, Sutton, Tanabe, etc.
Justin, Your points are well taken. If Snow is going to have to pay Markov upwards of 4 million, he may as well grab McCabe for the extra money. McCabe is a legit power play QB and would fill that role nicely. Plus he has proved to be durable and actually wants to play on the Island. The last thing we need is another brooding Russian. If he could grab both of them, all the better.
If he can't get either of them, my choice would be Tannabe. This is where we could get the most out of Nolan's coaching skills. Tannabe has all the tools but never seeemed to put it all together. Nolan may be the answer, here.
As far as Peca goes, he was a great pick up at the time, but you really can't go home again. Peca played hard and his body has betrayed him. I would rather keep my memories of him crashing around the ice than see him limping back to the bench every night. He is just a shell of what he once was.
I still can't figure out Asham. I thought he and Nolan were blood brothers and that he was the best third liner on the team. Does anyone have any idea why he is being ignored?
I keep reading that we have so much money to spend so don't worry
about the D. Personally, I don't see the talent to spend it on, so I am worried.
Finally, I am still baffled by Snow's so called "plan." I don't beleive he has a plan. I think he got badly mauled by the free agency
defections, then panicked and signed all the leftovers he could find. I have heard that he is building a "team" like Buffalo.
Unfortunately, besides their role players, Buffalo had Brirre, Drury, Vanek and a host of very good second and third line players.
We have a roster full of fourth line players and nobody close to Buffalo's top three players. If anyone sees a plan here, feel free to explain it......Bill
I believe Snow's plan is not going to be seen on Long Island for at least another year if not two. In building a team like our old dynasty and the likes of Buffalo today, starts with drafting and developing players. All of our young players still need to learn the game down in the Bridge, college ranks, etc. before making the jump up to the NHL. This is shown by many of the current Islanders being signed to one or two year deals. While we have to slightly overpay for giving us shorter deals in terms on length, it provides us with the roster flexibility in a year or two when these young players are ready to take the next step on a more perminat basis rather then just a call up due to injury or cracking the line-up as a 4th liner
J, If that's Snows plan then we are in serious trouble. As far as I can see, all we have in the farm system are projected second and third line players. And except for Kohn, the defense is bare. We do have the makings of a solid group but where is that one player you need to build a team around? You know that Pitt has Crosby and Malkin, Rangers have Jagr, Philly has Brierre (and Gagne), Devils have Parise and Gionta, Wash has Ovetchkin, Atlana has Kovulchuk, Ottawa Spezza and Heatley. Ok, you get the point. The Isles do not have that player, nor is anyone on the farm that player.
Yes, we have Okposo but he is years away, and I would not want to bet my future on a guy who has never played an NHL game.
I have high hope for Tambellini, who I believe can blossom into a Parise type player if used correctly. The rest of the young forwards may blossom into really good second and third line players.
But we still need that "go to" player. The type player that Yashin never became.
On another note, I see the trend in the NHL leaning towards locking up you core players RIGHT NOW. After seeing the debacle on Free Agent Sunday, I think the wiser GM's see the handwriting on the wall and are making extraordinary efforts to see those players signed. Louie L didn't waste any time with Parise after losing Gomez. Heatley is close to an extension and on and on it goes. I predict that next years crop of free agents will be devoid of any real "superstars."
The GM's have learned their lesson this year and will not fall into the same trap again. So, if Snow is counting on signing a big name player next year, I don't think that will happen.
Once again, just my take on things. Anyone else?...Bill
Bill,
I see where your coming from and I do realize that most of our younger talent is 2nd/3rd line players. I do think that Okposo is first line talent and will show that off this year by taking his to the frozen four.
While I agree many of the superstars that are to be UFA's for next summer will not hit the market, there will always be high end talent that is tradeable for due to the cap that has been installed and mismanaging these numbers. While Heatley maybe signed to an extension, maybe the hockey gods will show us some remorse for the Yashin deal and let us get Spezza back, even if it means signing him to an offer sheet.
Bill,
I concur. The alleged "plan" that Garth Snow has seems to be just a cover for his failure entering his first full off-season as the Isles GM. He did greatly under-estimate the market and was not prepared to make the correct offers to certain players.
A quick example is Ryan Smyth. Snow told us that Smyth was to be the franchise of the Islanders, and that he would do everything and anything to sign him. Then why did Snow merely offer him $1 million more over 5 years, or $250 thousand more per year. The Avalanche shelled out the money that they did, and they already have a franchise player in Sakic.
While I don't believe Snow should have signed Smyth for the kind of money he got from the Avs, money was not the reason Snow cited in his failure to resign Smyth. Snow, like Kevin Lowe, low-balled the kind of money Smyth was sure to get. The same can be said for Poti and the Capitals.
The Isles definitely will not have that go-to player this season, and that's a huge problem. Unless Comrie breaks out into an all-star, the Isles will be starved for offense all season long.
Bill and Justin, I couldn’t agree more with both of you . As an Islander fan every year we seem to hear every year we will be good in the future. Since 1988-89 season we have either missed the playoffs or lost in the first round every year excluding 92-93 when we lost in the third round. We have been patient long enough. Yes you don’t want long term expensive contracts, but wouldn’t it be nice to enter a season knowing we are going to have a winning team? Garth Snow might have a plan for the future.(key word might) but, I know as an Islander fan we have waited long enough and are ready to win now. Bill you said it best Rangers have Jagr, Dury etc, Pitt Crosby and Malkin, New Jersey Gionta, Parise, Ottawa Ovechkin, Ottawa, Heatley, Spezza. Pretty much every team has a star player and we have a 37 soon to be 38 year old Bill Guerin.
We have been optimistic since the Ziggy Palffy Robert Reichel days. And at least at that time we had a star player, a go-to guy.
Guerin will chip in, but he is not a star.
Cammalleri's award came in at 3.1 and 3.6 million for 2 years. The Kings have accepted and will not trade him.
Gee, Cammalleri get 3.1 and Fedotanko got 2.9. What's wrong with this picture?....Bill
Fedotenko will no longer be playing in the shadows of Vinny L, Richards, St. Louis, etc. He might have a break out season.
Hey guys,
Love the site.
I believe the plan is as follows: Obtain players in a fiscally responsible manner who actually WANT to play for the Isles.
Smyth didn't want to be here...no big secret there. Blake had a great season which produced an over exagerrated sense of self worth. He will not produce the same season with Toronto.
Do I feel that Jon Sim is going to lead us to a Cup? No, of course not. But players of his ilk (I include Asham in this group. He leaves everything he has on the ice. I don't understand the reluctance in bringing him back)will play hard, never take a shift off and be competitive every night. It is a successful strategy that has been employed by such teams as the Florida Panthers when they made their cup run in '96.
Out of all the available UFA d-men, the closest I see to a player of this mold is Markov. But signing him at the money he wants is not fiscally responsible. Better to bite the bullet this year, let a young guy like Kohn develop, than to strap ourselves with yet another large contract.
Did we overpay for Fedotenko? Yes. But I don't feel we overpaid for Guerin, based not only on his play, but the leadership intangibles he brings.
Bottom line: This year will be a rough one. We will not compete for anything higher than the 8th spot and, even then, will likely not make it out the first round yet again. But we cannot overcome all the Mad Mike mistakes in a couple of seasons.
It's going to take awhile to find the right players through the draft and responsible free agency, but I believe the end result will be worth it.
-Frank
I'm good friends with this couple who go to lots of Thrasher games, and they want Sutton gone. Too many defensive zone turnovers. THAT we don't need.
Frank,
You hit it right on the money. That's the hardest part, the balance between fiscal responsibility and doing all that you can to win now. The signings of Guerin, Comrie, Fedotenko, etc. are all short-term deals, so there is no real financial burden on the team beyond this season. And being that we still have ample salary cap space, these seem to be even more like a perfect fit.
Some will say we overspent on those players because they were the only ones left after all the big market teams reeled in the big fish. While there is much truth to that, the players we brought in seem to fit nicely in Ted Nolan's system. After watching Yashin struggle through last season, it should be nice to see a team that doesn't take shifts off on a nightly basis.
We are obviously not built to compete for the cup this season, but with a few more additions we might sneak into the 8th seed and surprise a team or 2 in the playoffs. I think that's what this team is built for - the role of the underdog and a relentless work ethic that will hopefully open some eyes for the first time in a long time on Long Island.
I see the term "fiscally responsible" being thrown around a lot. What exactly is fiscally responsible ?"
Is it lowballing Poti and Kozlov so that they walked away?
Is it failing to sign any of the top free agents because our offers were way too low?
Is it paying a journeyman like Jon Sim 3 miilion for 3 years and then failing to sign Trent Hunter to a 3 year deal?
Is it paying Fedotanko 2.9 million for how many goals last year?
And finaly, does "fiscal responsibility" apply to the paying customers? Are the fiscally responsible tickets prices being adjusted accordingly?
"Fiscal reponsibility" is double talk for being outwitted throughout this whole free agency period. The whole league is laughing at the moves Snow made.
Perhaps he will learn from this year and evolve into a real GM. So far he gets an "F.".....Bill
Bill,
I agree regarding Poti and Kozlov, Snow definitely underestimated the value they would each receive in the market. I also agree that Snow seems to be a bit confused at times, mostly because he is inexperienced. But I don't think that's what caused Poti and Kozlov to head to the Capitals.
Don't you think if Poti/Kozlov wanted to be here and Snow wanted them here then Snow would have been able to match or better the offers they received. I'm pretty sure the agents of those players told Snow of the contracts they were to receive from the Capitals. Snow must have turned the other way. You make it sound as if the original low-ball number that Snow probably offered was the end of contact between the 2 parties, that Snow blew it on the spot because he was unprepared, and so they bolted. That is never the case--the agents for each more than likely attempted to get a better offer from the Isles.
I'm not sure what other "top" free agents you believe we low-balled. I cited the Smyth scenario and that's the only example I'm fully aware of. I have on good authority that the Isles offered Drury around 8 years and equal money that he accepted from the Rangers.
I do believe the Isles low-balled the middle class of free agents, particularly guys like Priessing or Sykora. Players like that probably didn't go around the league (especially to the Isles) asking for a better offer. Now we stand 2-3 defenseman and 4 forwards short of having a competitive roster.
However, everyone was all over Snow a year ago. We had a horrible team on paper and everyone predicted a 30th place finnish. The Isles were holding on to the 6th seed for most of the season until DP's injury. Let them all doubt us again, and they, and you, will be in for quite the surprise this season.
Bill,
I define fiscal responsibility as paying for players in a wise fashion based on more than one season's performance...good or bad.
Snow does not earn an "A" in this department. I admitted he overspent on Fedotenko, but not by much. Look at his stats...for the previous 5 seasons, he averaged nearly 20 goals per. He plays with an edge and has, at times, been clutch. He is also +23 for his career.
Poti was good number-wise, but he couldn't play a physical style. Kozlov regained his scoring touch under Nolan's tutelage and should have been retained.
Regarding Trent, he will have a new deal worked out by February. He will remain an Islander a long time.
I'm not saying Garth hasn't made mistakes. But I do feel the plan going forward is to sign players who compete with a snarl and make the Isles a tough opponent game in and game out without breaking the bank.
-Frank
Asham signed by the Devils, by the way.
I'm not happy with this and alluded to it earlier.
It seemed to me that he fit the bill of being a Ted Nolan-type player.
Remember that the depth of this year's UFA pool wasn't the greatest. I truly believe the Isles already have a player of Sykora's caliber in Satan. For example.
It's been said before on this blog. It's all about ice time. I don't see why Fedotenko shouldn't produce just as much as Kozlov, if he's given the same amount of time on the ice. And Sim too, he's also been walking around in the shadows of players like Hossa, Kovalchuk and Kozlov, in Atlanta (a team that very much build around their stars).
Personally I don't know all that much about the Isles history. But the efforts made by team and management last year (in holding that 6th seed until the injury of DP), has convinced me that they're building a special team spirit which do not necessarily nead a star, go-to kind of player.
But who knows. Maybe a guy like Comrie could become just that. One thing's for sure. The Brieres, Drurys etc haven't been star players from the day they were born.
My prediction: 7th seed, even series with the Rags, winning series with the Flyers and the Devils and trouble with the Pens (if their kids can handle the Long Island grit:)
This prediction is of course based on Snow filling the holes on the roster. Top 4 D-man and top 6 forward, that is.
Justin said "Don't you think if Poti/Kozlov wanted to be here and Snow wanted them here then Snow would have been able to match or better the offers ."
The answer to that is NO. I think Snow was unprepared for the value that other teams placed on Poti and Kozlov. He had no idea how high the salries were going to rise and got caught way short.
He lowballed Priessing, Hannan and now Markov.
The arguement that Fedotanko played in the shadow of great players in nonsense. If you have ever played the game, you know that playing with great players makes you a better player. Not worse.
First off, if you play on a line with a great player, you pile up points that otherwise would never come your way.
Second, if you play on another line you avoid the best defensive players on the other team because thay are shadowing the better players.
Justin you keep referring to this "good authority." Who is it?
If it's such a good source then fill us in.
Snow has played this free agent season like a deer caught in headlights. Anyone who thinks that this roster will compete for a playoff spot is deluding themselves.......Bill
Can someone explain to me why Asham was let go for 700,000 when we have 15 million in cap room?
The Devils, once again, made a smart move that will pay off for them over a long season.....Bill
Your guess is as good as mine as to whether Snow was as prepared as he should have been. I personally believe the decisions not to actively pursue Poti/Kozlov came more from Nolan than from Snow.
Fedotenko's numbers were not inflated by playing on a team with St. Louis, Richards, Vinny, etc. b/c he rarely played with those players. Tank was mostly a 3rd liner as a member of the Lightning.
I agree Snow definitely low-balled Priessing, Hannan, and players of the like...
Bill,
After re-reading your posts, I must tell you that you've changed my mind regarding Poti. Good job...you make a compelling argument.
I wrote about the situation on my free blog in an article entitled "Dr. StrangeSnow (or how I learned to stop worrying and love Campoli)". You can read it here: http://pigskinsandpucks.blogspot.com/
I also agree with you that Asham, at 700K, is quite a reasonable salary..."fiscally responsible", if you will:). If Jon Sim, his prospective replacement, does not pot 20 goals while hitting everything on the ice this year, this move will come back to haunt them.
What do you guys think the chances of Tamby and Bergie making an impact this year?
-Frank
Bill: I agree with you on Markov. Snow should focus on bringing in enough quality players to compete next season. But I do think he made the right moves when he didn't throw big money AND long term deals after FA earlier this summer.
If the Isles are still stalling on Markov, it's because they're not willing to commit long term to a player prone to injuries. Throw whatever money it takes short term, but stay cool long term. I really think Snow has been successful in that department so far.
As for Tank, he didn't play with Richards, Lecavalier nor St. Louis all that much. And he didn't get much time on the PP. He will be better for the Isles.
Completely agree with you on Preissing. 2,750 seems cheap for a player of such caliber, at least this summer...
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