State of the Union
I know it has been awhile since I last posted, but I was away on vacation for the past week. During my time away I thought a lot about this upcoming season and also where the Isles stand as an organization.
Let's start with some organization overview. While things may seem a bit in chaos in terms of the true direction the franchise, I believe we are witnessing the beginning of a transformation, the slow journey from mediocrity to stalwart NHL contender.
As we have discussed numerous times on this blog, our drafting during the early to mid 90’s was so poor that it crippled our franchise for many years. Add this to some impatient trades during late 90’s and early 00's and it is easy to see how we are essentially still starting from scratch here during the first decade of the 21st century. On top of previous management mishaps, we now have an unexperienced GM and coach who is in his 2nd year of coaching after almost 10 years away from the NHL. But when you start from scratch, you have to start with basic ingredients. I think of Nolan as the eggs to the cake batter, the key to gluing this franchise together. The team we all saw last year as well as the roster put together this year shows how the ingredients are carefully being mixed together, although sometimes the stirring motion is somewhat meticulous. While some see the upcoming season as a desperate means to concoct a team out of outcast journeymen, I happen to believe many of the 'New' New York Islanders have been carefully chosen to add to the batter.
With our coach and GM as well as much of the NHL learning this new version of the NHL (in regards to rule changes as well as managing the salary cap for the short term and long term), I think for the sake of our sanity we need to take a step back and really look at how things are progressing and how they have progressed over the last few years. We have made the playoffs in 5 of the last 7 seasons which is a feat unto itself, especially with the roster turnovers we go through on what seems to be a yearly basis. Also, some would say our prospect pool is failing but I think the worst days are behind us; we have been rebuilding nicely from the collapse of the 90’s. Yes, I realize we don’t have the big names down on the farm, but I like the type of players we have been drafting. Hard-working speedsters like Bergie and Nokie will fit in extremely well under Ted Nolan's team. Okpose is supposed to be every bit as a hard-worker and much more skilled. Everyone can cry that we didn't draft Z. Parise, but there's no guarantee that he would have worked out in our system, the way he worked out for the Devs.
Many will wonder why this transformation didn’t begin in the late 90’s right away after years of losing seasons, and has waited until now to take form. I think the reason is that due to numerous ownership changes, the franchise was unable to create an identity for itself (remember it starts from the top and goes down). Then, we finally got an owner with the financial stability to keep our team competitive, yet who was also new to the sport and wanted a winner instantly. This brings the time of a legitimate beginning to the transformation to the year after the lockout, when the Isles missed the playoffs by a handsome amount. One season later we were back in the mix, with a new coach and a new GM and a renewed fire on Long Island. The lockout, which was absolutely horrible in many ways, may have truly been a blessing in disguise for all of us here in Islander Nation.
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Another thought: Everyone always says Snolan are both 'green', and learning how to coach/manage in the 'new' NHL, and I agree. But what I often overlook myself, and need to keep reminding myself and my antagonizing ranger friends, is that ALL other GM/Coach combo's in the league are starting over as well. Doesn't matter that some guys have been around forever, no one knows how signing a Gomez to that type of deal is going to pan out in the "new" NHL. Who knew that the D stalwarts of 2002 & 03 would be considered slow and "too big"? I think we all often perceive roster moves through our old NHL lens, where such signings were clearly the right thing to do. But now, who knows? They may turn out well, but you know what? So could a 15 year DP contract. Everyone is green since the rule & financial changes, and we have 2 leaders on the Island who are trying to prove themselves by making patient, calculated moves for an owner who is loyal and generous. Count me in for being optimistic...
IF the Isles are to succeed this season, they need to be built with speed and determination. If the Isles can remain fired up over the course of the season, then they definitely will surprise everyone this season.
Can you name one Isles forward who can't skate?
Trent Hunter is probably the slowest/weakest skater on the team. Yet Hunter is strong enough on his skates to nullify this deficiency.
Last season, like every season, we saw the Isles dominate at times, and disappear at times. With out Yashin's poor example on "how not to be a team player" look for a more focused team this season.
"While some see the upcoming season as a desperate means to concoct a team out of outcast journeymen,"
Amen........Bill
I added that part in...just for you Bill
Welcome back J. I was also on vacation, and had to stay with a couple of Sabres fans for two days.
One night, I went out to a bar in Rochester, and hung out with a bunch of hockey fans sabres, leafs, and habs. I spent the entire night having to defend being an Islander fan. At first, it was the usual stuff--ya know noboby wants to play in LI, the barn is a terrible place to play, no fans etc etc
Then the DP contract came up naturally, this draws a parralel to the Yashin contract, but what I told them was we locked up our best player for around 4.5 a year I dont see whats wrong with that. I compared our roster this year, to our roster last year. Is there anyone out there(other than bill, because he defaults to the negative) that thinks we are at least not as good as last year, if not better? Weve actually added goal scoring, and on D I think its a wash-----plus weve stabalized our back up goal situation with Dubie. Ive got a standing bet with the laefs and habs fans that we will finish with more points than both of them. Attainable? I think so..
Again welcome back and look forward to your next posts...........
By the way 2 j's..........any word on how much Peca is getting from columbos? I sure wish he would have re signed with us. True two way players in todays league are a HUGE commodity. Agreed?
Laffs, Thank goodness we didn't sign Peca. He was a great Captain and he was just what this franchise needed at the time. But that time has passed and his best days are behind him, now.
The last thing we needed is another 3 rd line forward who's health is in question.
As for signing DP to his contract, I don't really see any down side.
He signed for a reasonable price and, unless he gets injured, he will be a solid player for the next ten or twelve years.
NYISLES, I don't consider Nolan or Snow "green." I consider them to be resistant to change.
Nolan appears to be adamant about stocking the team with 4 th line players and refuses to allow the younger players a chance.
Snow got hopelessly outfoxed on Free Agent Day because he refused to believe that the market would generate such high salaries. When he finally woke, up he was forced to overpay for the "leftovers" just to fill his roster. He was also left will 10 million bucks worth of cap space and no one to spend it on. He could have locked up Hunter for the next few years, but failed to up the ante by how much? A few hundred thousand?? Absolutely ridiculous, penny wise and pound foolish thinking.
Both men need to change and accept that the new NHL will be built on youth and long term contracts for core players.
It's fine to be optimistic. A healthy dose of reality is better..............Bill
Weiss Signs 6yr Deal With Florida.
Well, at least some GM's are paying attention. This is the future of the NHL.
After next year, free agents will be a rarity, as more and more teams will not wait until it is too late to resign their players. Long term contracts are here to stay.
All the star players will be signing contract extensions just as Sidney just did. The rest will be left with cap space and fourth line players (sound familiar?).
Please take notice Mr. Snow.....Bill
Bill
I agree totally about being overstocked with mid line centers. My only thing with Peca is the fact that he is still a two way player. There is still talk of putting him on a first line in Columbus alongside Nash.
Now granted Im going back 5 years, and while he has lost a step, those ten shorties he scored in 01-02 were huge. Since then, we havent had a short handed threat(PARK????. Nothing can turn a game as fast as a shortie, and while here he provided some huge ones.
Also, I read he hasnt fully recovered from the vicious hit from Tucker that same year, but supposedly he is feeling his best this year.
As far as Weiss is concerned I would have loved him to sign with us. Problem is, I live down here in South Florida and he has become a huge beach bum. He is a regular on the jet set in the FT Lauderdale beach club scene, a big surfer and best buds with the owners son. I dont think we had a realistic chance of signing him at all, so I dont necessarily see that as a failure on Snolans part. Often times, its hard to compete with the intangibles when it comes to signing players. This was a perfect example.
I hear what youre saying though about other teams signing their players long term. It does have to make you wonder what the hell is going on in Snolans mind signing all these short term deals.After next season, we are looking at TEN ufa's and 5 rfa's. Wow!!!Is there a plan there somewhere and if so, do you know what it is? Im patient, and like to see the upside, but sometimes following this time makes it difficult to be a glass half full guy.
Your opinion please......
You know, the Isles could be on the forefront of the next big wave in hockey. Signing your franchise players to long term deals that make their cap hit more manageable seems to be a smart idea.
I mean, why WOULDN'T you try to lock up a Crosby or an Ovechkin for his entire career?
The Player's Union probably won't like it because the sense of loyalty between player and team has been badly scuttled by both sides in recent years. But it could be the way to go, especially when you take into account players who have families that will appreciate the stability.
As for the Isles this year, I will be truly convinced a change in philosophy has taken place when I see Tamby and Bergie getting regular, meaningful minutes.
If they're really serious about it, they'll dump the UFA's that they don't intend to sign at the trade deadline for draft picks. I'm not talking about a mass exodus here, but getting rid of one or two guys who aren't helping with the playoff push and aren't in the long term plans could yield some solid picks in what is rumored to be a very deep draft.
I'm excited about our two second rounders and hope Garth doesn't foolishly trade one of them during the season.
Pigsnpucks: Agreed! Optimism Bill, never killed anyone. However, pessimism by fans bleeds over to the sports writers, and eventually leads to empty seats @ home games. I 100% see your point, but here is another way to think about this.
You say Snolan is resistant to change? I say they've only had 1 year of work, 1 year to try to convince an entire league who wrote them off to rethink the Isles. How can you be sure someone is resistant to change when the first half of the season was spent doing damage control and dealing with team issues that weren't caused by them? They only got around to executing a future plan halfway through the season, and I have to say, they did a pretty good job. We lost some players, we gained some players, and we still have cap room. Is that reason to be pessimistic? Not in my book.
You say Snolan got outfoxed? Yes, to some extent, they tried to match/overpay for players. But I'll tell you what: the contracts thrown out here are reactive and panicky moves by GMs across the league. No one knows how this new CBA will affect the long term outlook of franchises, but GMs are in desperate CYA mode right now (see Vanek fiasco).
Regardless of whether the gomez's and Smyths of the league end up being strong moves, I believe EVERY GM who signed those deals has mortgaged their future ability to sign & retain up-and-coming talent. In the 7 years that the Rangers are paying Gomez insane amounts of money, how many A-chip rookies & draft sleepers will show up? Tons. Well, if the CBA works like it should, and these teams are pushed against the cap by these contracts, I rather like the Isle's position. We didn't go headfirst into this whole thing, whether by choice or by circumstance, and I'm ok with that. Look @ the Sourey trade. The ROI on that contract will be laughable. We almost went there, but i'm glad we didn't- no need to panic. Our game plan now: We give our rookies a chance (we WILL do that this year...), and we trade those guys not doing well for draft picks. This year we're not winning anything, nor next year. Its a longer-term rebuilding plan, and personally, I'm 100% fine with that.
nyisles,
"But I'll tell you what: the contracts thrown out here are reactive and panicky moves by GMs across the league."
No, No they are not. This is exactly the point you and Snow are missing. The face of hockey has changed and if you don't change with it, you will have half empty buildings for the foreseeable future.
Thr rest of the GM's in the NHL have seen that signing their core players to long term contrcts is the future of this league. Even mid level players are being locked up (see Weiss in Fla.).
By January, all of next years crop of free agent eligibles will be signed by the teams who wish to keep them. Only players who wish to change teams will opt out. Players who wish to go to a team with a shot at the Cup. The Isles do not fall into that catagory.
Snow has demonstrated that he does not grasp this (See Hunter).
Which team lost the most free agents this year. Thats right! The Islanders. Did anyone stop to think why that was?
It was because the GM was UNPREPARED to deal with the new CBA and got slicked by the rest of the league.
Aren't you glad Snow has 10 million in cap space and we have a team of fourth line players?
LAFFS, Weiss was just an example of what is coming. I did not expect him to sign here. I was just using him as an example of players being locked up long term.
He got 3 million for 20 goals. Snow took Hunter to arbitration ove a few hundred grand and he got 1.5 million and the right to walk next year.
Is Weiss twice as good as Hunter?
Both had 20 goals last year.
Do you see the point? Teams are willing to go for long term deals with promising players, while Snow could not get the deal done with Hunter over peanuts. He just doesn't get it..........Bill
@ Bill: you think throwing $$$$$$$ at Gomez was a calculated and rationale move? Hadn't anyone learned from the Yashin deal?
There is a subtle difference between the points we're trying to make. 1) resigning current, young, and hi-potential players to long term contracts is smart, as you state, and which I agree. 2) signing UFAs to massive contracts on opening day of FAgency is not smart. Thats what I'm referring to when I say panicky & reactive. Signing Crosby long term? no brainer, the isles would have done the same. Signing Sourey for that contract? Stupid.
The islanders, aside from Hunter's situation, had no one to resign. Blake? not worth it. Everyone else who left was UFA. So how can you say Snolan isn't changing, and resigning players for the long term, when you have a sample size of 1? (Hunter- who honestly hasn't come out of his shell yet, and may NOT be worth a 4 or 6 yr contract. That said, I'll be really upset if he is not offered an extension...I love his game) Also, what about DP? Is that not an example of the behavior you argue Snolan is not demonstrating?
I understand your point, just don't see how its fair to state Snolan isn't changing when there hasn't been an opportunity to do so.
On another topic...HockeyBuzz is ridiculous. Does the guy get drunk with friends who make predictions, and then he posts that as rumors from his sources?
FYI, this is from a posting entitled: Milan Michalek re-signs
"Anyway, from various sources there is big Sharks news coming today...I am assuming this to be the signing of Milan, however I have yet to get confirmation on what the news is exactly from anyone. It is still early out West, but I will stay on it.
What will be interesting is how this signing affects the Marleau situation with the majority of my sources calling this THE domino in the Marleau deal...Montreal, Toronto, NYI, and Ottawa are watching closely..."
Hey guys, I be in and out of the blog the next few due days, just moved and have only spotty internet service, hopefully by beginning of next week i will be back fully
NYISLES
@ Bill: you think throwing $$$$$$$ at Gomez was a calculated and rationale move? Hadn't anyone learned from the Yashin deal?
Nope. Throwing money at Gomez was not a good move for the Isles.
It was for the Rangers, who sell out every night and do not operate at a loss. They can afford it. It was what the market price was. Would you rather go into the season 10 million under the cap or have a Gomez or Drury on your team?
Losing Poti and Kozlov because you were caught short, was a bone head play. Poti was out best D man and QB on the power play. We lost him for nothing.
In my opinion Kozlov would have benefitted from Yashin departing. Kozlov played great when Yashin was out of the line up. Another player we lost for nothing.
I guess you feel that all the other GM's are stupid because they sure snapped up our free agents in a hurry.
We did score the coup of the signing period by netting John(WHO?) Sim for 3 years for double his value.
And finally, the players who we should be locking up are not getting a chance to play. All those early round draft choices are sitiing in Bridgeport watching the likes of Bates, Park, Hilbert and Simon clog the roster.
And another year will go by and we are not any closer to building a winning team than before......Bill
PS Signing DP was a Milbury/Wang brainchild. Snow had nothing to do with it.
PPS Sharks sign another core player to a long term deal. See a pattern developing here???
NHL LINE is reporting that Bryan Berard has been invited to Isles training camp.........
Great discussion guys...
Berard never had a fair chance to develop completely as an Islander because MM was always on his case. It's nice to see him get a second chance in the organization. Remember when Berard won the Calder Trophy? All past Isles' Calder Trophy winners went onto the Hall of Fame. Sorry Bryan.
I'm interested in seeing how this pans out. I loved him when he played for us, and thought his trade was the beginning of Mad Mike's trading insanity. WHO TRADES AWAY A CALDER TROPHY WINNER 1 YEAR LATER? FOR FELIX POTVIN? (sorry, I hate hate hate using all caps, but this was a necessity)
Interesting note- he was -32 the year he won the trophy! I have to wonder if there ever was a lower +/- winner of the ROY award. He's also -81 for his career: says more about the teams he's played for though I'd like to think...
I'm glad he's attending, but I have to wonder what his personal reaction to this is. Were the Isles the only team who invited him? Or did he choose the Isles over a number of other options. Anyone know?
I wanted to get the general opinion here on this idea:
Someone on another board suggested trading Okposo if we were able to pry Olli Jokinen from Florida.
I would not be in favor of this proposal. As much as I love Olli, I'm simply not inclined to trade Okposo at all.
What do you think?
-Frank
I am 100% not in favor of such a proposal.
I have only heard things about Okposo, and never seen him play. He's young, big, fast, mean etc etc (so they say)....strong upside, and therefore would love to see him raise hell as an Islander in 3-4 years.
Ollie? leadership, 28 y.o., big, proven goal scorer (36, 26, 38, & 39 goals over the last 4 yrs, replacing Blake 100% with someone younger, more consistent, & who people actually like).
I'd take it in a second, provided we can lock Ollie up for 6 yrs. I'm 100% for such a trade, IF a sign & trade can be worked out. This is NOT mortgaging our future...Okposo is unproven, hasn't played anything but college hockey, and wasn't THAT highly touted until after he was drafted. He's going to be good, for sure, but so much can happen in those years. What reason do you have for not wanting Ollie back?
Bottom line, its risky either way, but trading for Ollie (provided a long contract) would be minimizing risk.
That said, it ain't gonna happen..FLA would be silly to get rid of Ollie @ this point, even though they appear to want to follow in Milbury's footsteps (see: Luongo trade)
-Greg
According to several sites the Penguins have offered Markov 3 million per to sign with them.
Hey Garth !! Wake up!!!!!!
You gave Sutton 3 million a year for three years. You have 10 million left to spend.
Get your head out of the sand and
sign Markov to a multi year deal and solidify this defense for the next few years. You'll still have 6 million left to count.....Bill
Bill,
If you're advocating signing Markov or some other FA d-man, then who do you want to see getting sent down? I may be confused (and please tell me if I am), but I thought your idea was to include more homegrown guys in the lineup.
On another note, I was watching the Toronto game from February on Foxsports today. Freddy Meyer played pretty well...he thumped McCabe to the ice on one shift and held his own against Sundin on another. He may be someone we want to see develop as opposed to wasting him.
-Frank
Frank, Go back and read what I have been writing about the younger players.
FORWARDS, Frank, FORWARDS.
Markov is an upgrade over every Dman except Witt.
If the Isles signed him I would dress 7 Dmen and skip the last forward who plays 3 to 4 shifts a game.
I would use MAB only on the power play and on occasional shifts.
Campoli and Grevais would be 5 and 6 D-men and FMV would be in Bridgeport where he belongs.
It's a long seaon and Dmen are prone to injury. You can never have too many.....Bill
Hey Bill
Whats the latest on Berad? I cant seem to find any i9nfo on him.
Bill,
I did re-read your posts and I see you did mostly advocate working in a few young forwards. Just curious as to why you don't advocate the same for the d-men. (And I'll try not to take the capital letters personally...LOL...kidding)
On another note, because I had 20 minutes to kill, I was curious to see how many players that were drafted by their teams currently play on their active rosters. The results surprised me a little bit.
Buffalo led the way with 22 draft picks currently on the roster. Other teams with a high amount were Det and SJ with 17 each.
These are all successful teams. So therefore, one might assume that building from within is the most proven method of winning. (For the record the Isles currently carry 6 players).
However, there is one glitch: Anaheim only has 5 players that they drafted on the roster and have a Stanley Cup to show for it.
Interesting.
-Frank
Hi Frank, No insult intended by using caps. Just accenting my point.
Traditionally, D-men take longer to develop than forwards. That has always been the case in hockey. Unless a plyer is exceptionally gifted, most team do not throw a D-man right into the top four pairings. Generally, they work him into the system and allow a more seasoned player to cover his mistakes. Of course, there are always the Potvins, Orrs and Borques who were exceptions to this rule. But on the whole, a young D-man is brought along at a slower pace than a forward. Check the Devils and see how they used this approach over the years.
As for the Isles having six draft choices on the team?
DP
Campoli
Gervais
Bergenheim
Martinek
That's all I can see. Who am I missing. Don't forget that Dubie went undrafted, so he doesn't count.
As for building from within, check out Ottawa, too. Three of the four Cup finalists all had a dozen or so draft choices on their rosters.
Anaheim may be an exception to the rule, but are you counting players who just left via free agency?
I believe they had more than five on the Cup team......Bill
Frank, you are right about the Ducks. I thought Penner was a draft choice but he was not.
Berard is all over the internet. Check Spector or Ecklund. Both have stories about his tryout.....Bill
Hey Bill,
I think you are correct and TSN.ca is wrong about the Isles draft picks.
The 6th one they listed is Steve Regier...I think he was called up for one game.
Hmmm...he had 46 points for Bridgeport and has good size. Let's add him to our collection of third line forwards:)...LOL
Actually, a thought occurred to me: Do you feel the reason we signed all these 1 year deals is that, when the FA's leave next year (because it's inevitable that at least someone will), Nolan will finally believe that Tamby, Bergie and Nielsen (whom I am a big fan of) will be ready to play meaningful minutes and will insert them into the lineup?
-Frank
Frank, I think Nolan has proved that he has no use for "rookies."
This is a serious mistake on his part and will eventually lead to him being fired.....Bill
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