Sunday, August 26, 2007

The Big Bad D

We have beaten the analysis of the forwards into the earth and there's not much else we can do to manipulate it. It will be Snolan's call whether Bergenheim and Tambellini finally get a fair shot, or whether we will be horrified with another year of the Hilberts, Parks, and Bates'. Now let's take a look at our big bad defense.

If the season started today, our defense would include in its top-6: Brendan Witt, Radek Martinek, Andy Sutton, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Bruno Gervais, & Chris Campoli. Freddy Meyer is the best bet for the 7th defenseman and one-time Isles' Calder winner Bryan Berard is coming to camp on a tryout basis. Not the best crew, but certainly not as bad as it was a few weeks back. Sutton gives the Isles a legitimate NHL crease clearer, standing at 6-6, Sutton is undoubtedly an upgrade over the slow-footed/undersized/offensively-challenged Sean Hill. Further, no one knows for sure how Berard will come to camp, but there's one thing I do know about Berard: he will come to camp ready to work. Anyone who can battle back from the kind of injury that Berard suffered will certainly come to a "tryout" more than ready to prove his worth. Kudos to Bryan for all he has achieved thus far in his career.

The first pairing should include Witt and Martinek. Witt does it all: shot blocking, penalty killing, first line match ups, the works (except the powerplay). Same goes for Martinek, at a much quicker speed with less muscle. Yet Martinek's small frame constantly lands him on the injured list because he tries to play a game beyond his physical capabilities. But for now, these are easily our top-2 D-men, with Sutton as the third. MAB is prone to defensive lapses and needs to be paired with a defensive minded D-man. I think Sutton-MAB is a good match up. While everyone is quick to point to MAB's defensive blunders, he was still a plus-rated player last season and averaged almost a point per game. I'll take that this season.

That leaves Gervais and Campoli as the likely 5/6 D-men. I've been over their numbers before. Gervais was the worst rated plus/minus D-man on the Isles last season and Campoli wasn't that much better. Both should be looking to rebound after below average performances last season. Neither are overly physical, especially Campoli who was continuously seen being out-muscled along the boards, in front of the net, etc. If either falters during training camp, look for Berard to jump right in. Berard is a seasoned vet who has proven his career-threatening injury wont affect his determination. Knowing Snolan the way I do, look for the third D-man pairing to include Gervais and Berard over Campoli.

Adding Markov would certainly upgrade our D. The reason for this is plain and simple: Markov is currently a better defenseman than Gervais, Campoli, MAB, and Sutton. This would indeed knock Campoli to the Bridge for the season, but if the goal is to put the best product possible on the ice, then this is a smart move. In addition, things would not spin out of control if Martinek went down with an injury. However, if the goal of the season is to build for the future, then it would be best to give Campoli the NHL playing needed in order to further develop his game.

Some other issues...

Jokinen: I am hesitant to welcome back Jokinen (not that it's plausible). Some players can't seem to produce in an Isles uniform and for whatever reason, I believe Jokinen is one of those players. He was a high-draft pick, but never showed the motivation or determination to succeed as an Islander. Jokinen was not one of those Isles prospects who we simply traded before he was given a fair chance to fully develop, (that was more the case with players like Bertuzzi, McCabe, Luongo, etc.) Jokinen played a lackluster game (Kvasha-like) and I don't believe it's a guarantee for him to put up the numbers he has put up with Florida, with the Isles. It's just a gut instinct, I have no data to back up such an opinion.

Hunter: Snow definitely messed something up here. Hunter should have been locked up for the next 5 years at a reasonable market price. Hunter is a good team player and a clutch goal scorer, so I find it strange that Snow went all the way to arbitration here while failing to sign him to a long-term deal. However, I don't think a Trent Hunter is going to make or break the Isles franchise. Let's hope Snow can lock up Hunter at some point during the season.

Peca: I was a fan of bringing back Peca, but with the signing of Vasicek, there's just no room for Peca here. Bill said it best when he remarked how important Peca was for us when he first came, but also how he would merely be another 3rd/4th line injury-prone player. I'm glad Garth stayed away.

Lost FAs: The only FA Snolan lost who we would have liked to keep was Poti. Kozlov was OK during the season, disappeared for weeks at times, although he was handy in the shootout. But having players who only play when they feel like it screws with a locker room. I was certainly not sad to see him go. Yashin good-riddance, same to Blake, Zednik, etc. Snow may have under-estimated the value of the market, but I don't think it really mattered all that much. I don't think the Isles would have paid what the Caps are paying Poti, and most of the other FAs probably weren't coming to the Isles anyway. Someone like Priessing may have slipped away from Garth, but I can't think of any others.

The DP Contract: For now it's an all-star move. We have an elite goaltender locked up for below his market value. That being said, I'm not sure why Wang couldn't have tamed his impulses and offered DP a 10-year deal. Goaltenders are streaky and they can lose their magic pretty quickly (see the careers of Felix Potvin/Chris Osgood).

51 comments:

Anonymous said...

i thought jokinen played alright here.he was young and probably should have been developing on the farm.he didn't blossom offensively until he had a few years under his belt in fla.i thought he showed good skating ability and wasn't afraid to play the body, at worst a checking line center. mm the gm could draft and acquire good young talent,mm the coach had no patience or idea how to develope that talent.

PIGSKINSANDPUCKS said...

By the way...this video proves that, even though he doesn't do it very often, MAB is capable of laying a wicked hit on somebody:)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yAhahFbTrM

Anonymous said...

Justin, Good post. Most of what you say is absolutely correct.

What would you say to these pairings?

Witt-MAB
Sutton-Campoli
Martinek-Gervais

Witt could cover MAB defensivly while allowing him room to show off his offensive side

Sutton is a crease clearer which is what Campoli is not strong enough to do. Campoli adds some speed to the slower Sutton.

Martinek is a steady player, who would have a calming influence on Gervais, who played out of control at times. I think Gervais has a good upside and is not as bad as his plus/minus showed last year.

As for losing Poti, I noticed you say Washington "overpaid" for him. I really do not believe in that term.
Is Washinton a better team with Poti or not?
Are we a worse team for losing him or not?
Are we still 10 million under the cap?

To me, fans are a bit off kilter when they worry about player contracts. If Snow goes into the season with a worse team, but still 10 million under the cap, how did it benefit the fans?
Are the Islanders going to say "Hey, we're under the cap by 10 million. Let's lower ticket prices and refund some season ticket holders money."

Right, I didn't think so.

Being in favor of "cap space" just means your GM did a lousey job of signing players and the team and the fans suffer for it.

I still have the feeling that Wang is holding the purse strings. He is being sued for big money by CA and I think that is what'a holding Snow back..............Bill


PS
Jokkinen sucked when he was here. He played like he wanted to be somewhere else.

PIGSKINSANDPUCKS said...

Funny story:

I had a dream last night that I met Charles Wang for lunch and was given 5 minutes to present to him the players I think he should allow the Islanders to sign/develop.

However, all my notes were mixed up in my briefcase (yeah, like I'd REALLY carry a briefcase)and I couldn't string together any coherent sentences. He left after the 5 minutes, claiming he had to go meet his mistress!

Then, the dream shifts to me at my computer, looking at Yahoo Sports, where the headline reads: Allison an Islander.

Ok, no more pizza right before bed for me.

Do ya THINK I'm a little immersed in hockey?...LOL

-Frank

Candyman said...

Yeah lay off the pizza...AND THE KOOLAID!!!

Bill,

I don't necesarily believe Poti would be the answer to this year's team. The cap space could have been used to add another defensive minded defenseman or some skilled forwards. Would I rather see Poti in there eveyday over Campoli? Of course I would. But I think the Isles struggles this season will come from an inconsistent offense.

Can anyone come up with any scenarios how we could land a big name forward?

Anonymous said...

Justin, A team is built on solid players, not one superstar

Signing both Hunter and Poti to four year deals would have taken a big step toward building that team.

You have siad it was no big deal to lose Poti and said that Hunter won't kill the Isles when he walks.

So, my question to you is "Where does it start?"
Obviously, we have 10 million to spend and no one to spend it on.

Every day, next years crop of free agents are being locked up to long term deals by their current teams.

This means that free agents will fall into two catagories.

1. Second tier players who will have plenty of teams to chose from and will commmand super salaries.

or

2. Players teams were willing to cut loose because they felt the were not worth the money they were being paid.

Snow has already indicated he is not willing to spend the type of money it would take to land a big name player (if there even is one available).

So, that leaves us with the second choice. Which is what we have now. And we have more free agents than any other team next year.

This franchise is headed for disaster and the GM is counting his "cap space,".......Bill

Anonymous said...

Can anyone come up with any scenarios how we could land a big name forward?

No, I can't. There is not a single player on the current roster who is coveted by any other team enough to trade a big name forward for. (Except DP who can't be moved because of his contract.)

That pretty much sums up this team,

And since our young forwards don't appear to be good enough to play for this pathetic team, how can we expect other teams to want to trade for them?.......Bill

Anonymous said...

Did anyone notice that the Hockey News and all of it's pundits have picked the Isles to finish dead last in the Eastern Conference.

Yes, I know they were wrong last year, but every other team has improved and we have backtracked. Pitt, Philly, Rangers have dramatically improved while the Devils are a question mark. They do have Broduer, who is always a sure bet.

Realistically, as things stand now this is how it looks to me:

Pitt
Rangers
Devils
Philly
Isles

Ottawa
Buffalo
Montreal
Toronto
Boston

Carolina
Tampa
Atlanta
Florida
Washington

Playoff teams

Ottawa
Pitt
Buffalo
Rangers
Carolina
Tampa
Devils
Atlanta or Montreal


Isles will go 32-45-5 and finish 12 th in the conference.

Of course things could change between now and Oct.
Snow needs to do some serious fleecing of some other teams.
Any thoughts?............Bill

PIGSKINSANDPUCKS said...

Justin- There was no Kool Aid involved...just some really bad pizza and some anxiety about the upcoming year...LOL

Bill,

I'd love to sit here and disagree vehemently with you, but I can't. I do have some doubts about Philly and the way those new pieces will all fit together, but they're the only ones I can see us finishing ahead of.

So, I'll give say we finish 37-40-5 and finish 10th in the conference..many different things could happen (injuries and such) that would enable us to gain the extra 5 wins...wishful thinking, I suppose.

Bill, do you feel we'd be immeasurably better with Neil Smith in charge?

(I'm off to Vegas for my bachelor party. See you guys next week.)

-Frank

PIGSKINSANDPUCKS said...

One last thing:

Bill, you have quite a few issues with Nolan and I can't disagree with many of them. But I have a question for you:

You've been pretty critical of the UFA's we've picked up and have backed up your points well. I was curious, so I did a little research on the team that Nolan took to the conference semi-finals in 1997, the year he also won the Jack Adams trophy.

Here were some of the players on that overacheiving team:

Donald Audette, Matthew Barnaby, Bob Boughner, Curtis Brown, Randy Burridge, Jason Dawe.

None of them are Crosby or Ovechkin types, yet the team bought into Nolan's style and played with a tenacity and grit that made up for their shortcomings.

Frankly, I don't see Audette, Boughner and Dawe being any better than Guerin, Comrie and Fedotenko.

Granted, he had Dominik Hasek in the nets. But then again, we have DP, who is just coming into his own and beginning to realize his potential.

Do you not feel that lightning could strike twice? Granted, I'm the guy who has been in favor of an almost total overhaul to build from the ground up. But this does put a little credibility into what Nolan and Snow think they see in those players. They've seen what can be accomplished with a similar type of team.

Be good, guys. Vegas awaits!

-Frank

Anonymous said...

Frank, You left out Peca, Satan and Zhitnik all in ther prime.
Who would you compare to Donald Audette?
They also had a rock solid defense with Shmelik, McKee, Patrick, Wolley and the aforementioned Zhitnik.

We have nothing close to that.

DP is not yet Hasek in his prime.

Nolan did win the Jack Adams award and was the offered a one year contract.

What does that tell you?

Darcy Regier must have known something.
And no team has touched Nolan since.

I think Nolan would be a fine coach, if he would just get past his resistance to allowing the younger kids ice time.
His loyalty to 4 th line palyers may be good for the players, but it is not in the best interests of the team.

The best players should play. Not the coaches favorites....Bill

FAUX RUMORS said...

1) With the brittleness of Martinek, it was probably a good idea to invite Berard. You can bet he'll be motivated and a team can't have enough decent veteren defensemen. Especially one who can run a PP.

shinkdew said...

Bill, you might want to go back and see how old Peca and Satan were when they went to the semis. I would hardly call 22 year olds "in their prime". As a matter of fact, if you look at the roster, it pretty much debunks your theory that Nolan doesn't like playing young guys. 15 players on that team were under the age of 25. Also, Wooley and Patrick were not on the 96-97 team. Their defense was Zhitnik (24), Smehlik (27), Galley (33), McKee (19), Shannon (28), Wilson (22) and Boughner (26)

J Picker said...

I think what we are seeing from both Snow and Nolan in regards to youth is that they are almost scared to mishandle the few young talented players. This had lead to the signing of some more career 3rd/4th liners so that these young players can fully learn the game. Lets also be realistic here, its not we have a Stanley Cup team here that needs that injection of youth to keep the team going.

Candyman said...

Bill and others,

Hunter is a third liner and while Poti had a decent season last year, he is a 4/5 defenseman. While they certainly could contribute to a good team, they are not foundation players. You say we have to start somewhere and you are right. My only point is that the Hunters and Potis of the NHL are extremely replaceable. I think one of your biggest fears (and mine too) is that what we are experiencing now (a desperate 2 months to concoct a team of "maybes") is what we might experience next year, and the years to come. Without a core group locked up for the longterm, we will face these makeovers at the end of every season. Maybe we will make the playoffs. Maybe we wont. But the point is the Isles will never get to the next level without a core.

By a core, I mean 5-6 quality players who will be here for years and we can count on to keep the team competitive to the fullest extent. (Think of the Devils' Elias, Gomez, Rafalski, Neidermeyer, & Brodeur for about 5 seasons). Right now we have DP.

I think Nolan is a great motivator, but I found myself questioning his hockey knowledge at many points last season. The 2 big ones: The continuous/unbelievable/insane idea to stick with Dunham when he basically told Nolan with his play "I am a washed up has-been and I need to be benched." The other was Nolan's constant D-pairing of Hill & Witt. I don't know how an NHL coach got away with pairing his 2 oldest slowest defenseman together for multiple stretches during a season.

Anonymous said...

Shinkdew, And you may want to get your facts straight before posting. It was NOT the '96-'97 Buffalo team that went to the finals.

It was the '98-'99 team that played the Dallas Stars in the finals.

Peca and Satan were 24 yearls old
Zhitnik was 26.

Peca 27 goals. 29 Assists.
Satan 40 goals. 26 Assists.
Zhitnik 7 goals. 26 Assists.

Yes,I would say that all three were in their prime years.

The defense is exactly as I said it was.

In addition, Jason Wooley had 10 goals and 33 assists.

Better to be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and prove it....Bill

shinkdew said...

Bill, you need to check your reading comprehension. Frank was talking about the team Nolan took to the SEMI-finals in 96-97. To which you replied about Peca and Satan being in their prime, and their rock solid defense being anchored by Wooley and Patrick.

Now that you can't bitch about Nolan having a bias against young players, maybe you can go back to bitching about Poti not being resigned and Hunter not being locked up for 5 years.

Anonymous said...

Justin, If you don't think that Poti and Hunter were worth resigning then who do you suggest be signed for the long term?

I think Hunter can be a second line player and that Poti is easily a top four Dman. I don't think that there are many teams that have four better Dmen on their roster than Poti.

Shinldew

Nolan proved last season that he would not go with the younger players by going with Dunham over Dubie.
He also never really gave Neilssen or Tambellini any significant playing time.
I also think that he destroyed Campoli's confidence by sending him down after a very good rookie season.

No one is "bitching." This is a forum to express your opinion, which is what I do. You can agree or disagree as you wish.

Since I don't see anything to the contrary from you, I take it that you are satisfied with the make up of this team...........Bill

Candyman said...

That's exactly the problem--we don't have any of those sure-fire contributors who we know will be good for years to come. But I don't think that means we have to react by signing mediocre players to long-term contracts. But you're right, who then do I suggest we sign to a long-term deal? Well no one in our organization (except MAB). It's a shame we've had so many stars in our grasp and have nothing to show for it today.

Candyman said...

Guys,

Please keep the expletive use to a "only when necessary" circumstance.

shinkdew said...

Bill you are right, I'm pretty happy with the make up of the current team. They are a better team now, than last season. I think they'll finish between 6th-12th. The Eastern Conference is going to be tighter this year than last year, but I don't see any reason why they can't make the playoffs, unless DP gets injured. I think Hunter will probably have his best season as pro, which will force the Islanders to pay him. And I also think Satan will have a career year. He's in a contract year, and is probably going to be signing the last "big" contract of his career.

Hunter is never going to be anything more than a checking line winger. He can't skate, if he was a better skater, he'd probably be a 2nd line player.

I agree with you that Tambellini should have received more playing time. I don't agree with Neilsen, at best he'll be a 3rd line player, probably 4th line. I don't think he's ready to play at a high level consistently.

I think Snow has a pretty good plan in place that hinges on the Islanders making the playoffs this year. If they don't, next season could be as bad as it's ever been on the Island.

Currently, I think the only core players they should sign long term are DP, Tambellini, Bergenheim, Campoli, Martinek and Gervais. It's not a bad core to be building around. You add Okposo, Comeau, Nokie, Neilsen, Colliton, Kohn and Rakshani and things don't look that bad, long term.

Anonymous said...

I have to disagree about Hunter. He's just 27 years old and in 3 full seasons he has 61 goals and 64 assitis for 125 points in 244 games.

That's better than a half a point per game which is right about where a second line player should be.

Hunter may be slow, but in the second half of last year he seemed to become adept at defelecting pucks, much like Mark Parrish. He also killed penalties and played the power play.

Hunter would only be 30 years old at the end of a 3 year deal. He is the closest player we have that could be considered a core player.

Snow should lock him up now or he will regret it at the end of the year.............Bill

PS I also agree that MAB should be signed to a multi year deal. We have far too many players in their walk years.

River Alph said...

Bill,

I don't think Nolan sent down Campoli. If memeory serves, he got injured in the pre-season and stayed in Bridgeport longer than anticipated.

Anonymous said...

While it is true that Campoli was injured, he was still cut from the team by Nolan and sent to Bridgeport. It was well into the season before he was recalled and that was not due to injury.....Bill

shinkdew said...

Bill, I don't know where you get that Campoli was cut by Nolan. He injured himself during training camp and was put on the IR on 10/4/06. He was sent down to Bridgeport at the end of October to get back in shape, and played 15 games.

Nyisles82 said...

So check this out: Since I like stats, and Im procrastinating studying for comprehensive exams, check out the following very very basic number magic.

Key: Name (Career high goals scored/year) (Average goals/season playing 40+ games)

Recent additions:

Comrie (33/2001) (20.5)
Fedetenko (26/2005) (17.8)
Guerin (41/2001) (26)
Sim (17/2007) (14)
Vasicek (19/2003) (12.75)

Total goals scored in career years: 136
Average year in which career year occured: 2003.4
Total average goals scored : 91.08


Recent Departures:

Blake (40/2007) (14.9)
Yashin (44/1998) (28.08)
Kozlov (25/2007) (15.37)
Smyth (39/1996) (22.5)
Asham (15/2002) (7.25)

Total goals scored in career years: 163
Average year in which career year occured: 2002
Total average goals scored: 88.09

So what does this mean?

1) The players who have left have had overall better career years.

2) The players who left, on average, over the course of their careers, score LESS goals than the new additions.

3) The players who left have had, on average, more recent career years.


However, these team changes do not take into account age, contract year vs. cushy 10 year contracts, personality, work ethic, size, style of play. All of these points are more positive with our new group.

To be fair, there are some that are not: 2 players had career years last year with the isles (kozlov & blake). However, this speaks to the coaching & system in addition to the player, which is good for our new guys. Some of these stats were put up on teams that dominated (e.g. Tank on the cup-winning lightning team), which are not realistic expectations for this year.


These are just stats, of course. Nonetheless, if you abide by the 'regress to the mean' law of career stats, you have to be pretty psyched about our current team. If, on average, our current team scores what they average over the course of their career while our departed players do the same, we'll be better off. Moreover, the departed players, with their more impressive career years, which are statistical outliers, have reaped the financial benefits of this, despite the fact that on average, they are going to score less than our lesser-paid players. Bill, can YOU put a negative spin on this? :)

Bottom line: 2007-2008 looks good, and all the Sportswriters should probably take a look at the numbers before saying we're going to finish dead last in the NHL. Hockey is a team sport, and individual career stats and contracts do nothing on the ice: it is the collection of what you can expect these players to produce that should guide our pre-season team rankings: nothing else.

FYI:

1)I hesitated adding Smyth into the departed group, considering his brief tenure, but decided to do so anyway.

2) I left out Randy Robitaille from last years group to keep the number of players constant, and because his personal stats (12/2005) (10.5) are replaceable- there are many 10 goal scorers in the league (ask Bill- he seems to think our team is full of them). RR brings the ex-player stats up to :

(175/ 2002.5) (98.65)

Nyisles82 said...

Bill, reading my previous post, do you still believe our team has regressed?

If I have time, I might do the same for the other teams you say have improved drastically. I sincerely believe you will be surprised at the results. Gomez, Drury, Briere- the power of "what have you done lately" is intoxicating and what people easily get caught up in.

Think of the number of players, across all sports, that out-perform their average stats in contract years. A) that bodes well for the Isles who have a lot of players in contract years, and B), makes me smile to think the Rags will be paying Gomez for 7 years of averaging 16.5 goals/season- similar to what our very own John Sim averages (14), for a fraction of the price.

Bill: Take a moment to think about the law of averages, and sit back and think positive about the season.

Deal?

-Greg

Anonymous said...

Shink, When Campoli came off I/R he was assigned to Bridgeport. That is being cut.

Playing two or three games in Bridgeport to get into shape or to rehab is a different story than playing 15 games.

Until Zhitnik was traded, there was no room on the Isles for Campoli.

Even if he had not been injured he would have been sent to Bridgeport,
anyway.

If you recall there were several articles about Nolan's displeasure with certain players who came to camp assuming that they had the team made. Campoli and Robert Neilson were widely suspected to be those players.

With Witt, Poti, Hill, Zhitnik, Martinek and Gervais all on the team, there was no room for Campoli.

Call it what you want, but being assigned to the minor leagues is being cut......Bill

Andyman Norway said...

Well, right now it's a new season, and since the Isles haven't yet signed another D-man it seems to me that Nolan has decided to go with Campoli as a top 6'er this year. Kudos! To me it's irrelevant how many games he had to play in the minors after his injury almost a year ago. It's the upcoming season that's important.

I totally agree with Greg when it comes to the UFA frenzy of this summer. The stats were interesting. I'd also like to see the probability of a player putting up career years two years in a row. Guess the odds will NOT be in favour of the Rags...

Nyisles82 said...

Andyman, I was considering setting up a regression equation to do exactly that- and get a bit of "prediction" out of it as well, but alas, I have other stuff to do. Setting up these regression equations are what those who take fantasy sport leagues way too seriously do, but they win.

I recall doing a project with my intro to statistics students a few years back that predicted Super Mario's career stats had the injury & cancer not affected him. Based on his career stats up to that point, he would have surpassed Gretzky in goals, still been far away in assists, and come in a close second with points if he was able to still retire around when he finally did (I believe this was in 2002...so yes, he did end up playing a few more games after that). Interesting stuff, and quite sad to not have the opportunity to see him challenge the all-time records.

Candyman said...

Greg,

Great job on your formula. I would not include Smyth because he might distort the outcome. While his highest total might have come in 1996, he did have 36 goals last year. I think he's irelevant; he didn't do much for the Isles last season at all.

You, Jeff, and I (and others) have shown how the numbers have been replaced from the departures from last season. I think we are justified in being optimistic this season. I would take a motivated Comrie and a 36 year old Guerin over a selfish Blake and a lackluster Yashin any day.

Who are we so upset about losing? Poti? Poti looked better than he was because he was being compared to Campoli, Gervais, Rourke, Fata, Meyer, and the other merry-go-round of defenseman we used. I remember how horrible he was on the Rangers. I predict he will struggle this season in Washington.

Anonymous said...

Justin said

"Poti looked better than he was because he was being compared to Campoli, Gervais, Rourke, Fata, Meyer, and the other merry-go-round of defenseman we used."

Big wheels keep on turin'.
Merry go round keeps on burnin'.

Poti had a solid year and would be the number 2 defenseman on this team behind Witt.

Poti looked good because he played well. It was his career year and he cashed in on it.

As most hockey people know, D-men take longer to mature than forwards. Poti hit his stride last year.

That being said, there is still plenty of time for Gervais, Campoli and MAB to mature and play at a higher level.

If I recall, Martinek struggled his first couple of years here and finally blossomed into a decent player. I just don't know if any team can afford to have 3 youngsters on "D" at the same time.
We shall see...........Bill

Candyman said...

Poti had a minus rating last year and 23 players on the Isles finnished the 2006-2007 season with a better plus/minus than Poti. Poti was serviceable, but he is not a top-2 defender on this team nor any team. This is all moot being that Poti is gone.

Bill, I know you are in favor of adding Markov for the right price. I feel as well that this is not a sufficient D-unit as it stands today. Perhaps the Isles can rekindle talks about the availability of Derek Morris.

Anonymous said...

Justin, Plus/Minus is not always as it seems to be.

A player who is on the ice for 25 + minutes per game and has a minus rating can be more valuable than a player who plays 8 minutes and has a plus rating.

Also, a player who plays on the power play, does not get a plus for
a goal being scored.

Obviously, teams felt that Poti's plus/minus was not a hinderence by the contract he signed.

Just curious, but after Witt who do you feel is better than Poti on the Isles blueline right now?

Certainly not Sutton, who Poti could lap in a foot race. Not Martinek, who breaks when someone looks at him sideways, Not MAB,who is the King of D zone give-a-ways. Gervais and Campoli are not in Potis class, so who? ...... Bill

Anonymous said...

Bill, I know you are in favor of adding Markov for the right price.

Justin, Here we go again with the "right price." As fans, why should we care what the owner pays a player if the team is improved?

Again, I ask everyone on this blog?

"Would you rather have top players (Markov) or "cap space?"

Cap space is useless, if you can't spend it on talent...........Bill

Candyman said...

Plus/minus does not prove anything, and I believe plus/minus can be misleading. But I think you are remembering too many of the good moments from last season, while forgetting the poor ones. While Poti did improve towards the end of the year, Poti was caught pinching many times last season. He was a horrible power play quarterback, almost refusing to take a shot when he was open.

Someone who ranked 157th in the league for defenseman plus/minus must not have been doing something wrong, on a team that made the playoffs and finnished 10 games over .500. Poti not getting a "plus" on the powerplay is negated by everytime he should have got a "minus" for losing his man on the penalty kill.

I agree, give Markov the money. It's not like we got anything better to spend it on. (Lindros?)

Nyisles82 said...

Bill, no question for me. I want Markov. When crazy oujie board bloggers over at HockeyBuzz fail to mention the Isles as a "contender" for his services, I worry. Clearly the guy Eklund over there throws darts at one wall covered in player names, and then at another wall covered in team names and then says there are rumors that player x is going to team y, but as they say, where there's smoke, there's fire.

No way I want to be 10 mill below the cap. Then again, it's not my money, and I can't tell someone else how to spend theirs. A common response I've heard (over at the Newsday blog) to this situation is to protest by not buying tickets, seeking refunds for season tickets, etc. My question is, how does this solve anything? Not going to games only makes Mr. Wang less inclined to push up to the cap limit, and begins a vicious cycle, eventually turning you into the Panthers. I live in Florida, trust me, you don't want to be the panthers...

I really hope they're at least in the running for Markov, or at least one other D-man. It can't hurt. Either MAB, Witt, Sutton, Martinek (who I think will be HUGE this year), Campoli, or Gervais will be injured this year, and we need 1 more stopper. Then again, maybe Berard will prove all we need, giving us a good combination of grit, speed, size, veteran-ness, youth, and passion (I can't question any of those guys with respect to passion...except Sutton, who I don't know yet).

One more comment on our D. I think that given the overall offensive skill level in the Atlantic, no one Defensive corp across the league is enough. The team that will be successful in our division this year is the team that plays team defensive, and plays a grinding, physical, and smothering game (see: Devils cup years). Look at the top talent: Briere, Jagr, Gomez (maybe), Drury, Crosby, Malkin. Give them room, they'll hurt you. Hit them upfront with Hunter, then drape Witt on them on the backside, and they're not going anywhere.

How many days until the season starts??

Anonymous said...

Justin Where did Poti rank as far as minutes played or average ice time per game?

I have no idea where to find this....Bill

Anonymous said...

Justin I just looked up Poti's stats on NHL.COM.

Player Notes:
2006-07 REGULAR SEASON: - Led the team w/ an average time on ice of 25:42 and with a career-high 38 assists. - Finished 14th in the NHL with 170 blocked shots. GAMES MISSED: 4 -- Healthy Scratch: 0 -- Injury: 4 (Back Spasms: 4)

PLUS/MINUS -1

2006-2007 GOALS (6) ASSISTS (38) POINTS (44)

GOALS BY D-MEN-- TIED FOR 55TH
ASSISTS BY D-MEN---TIED 17 TH
POINTS BY D-MEN---TIED FOR 20 TH

MMMMMM, Top 20 in Blocked Shots, Assists, Points and lead the team in Ice Time. Only missed 4 games all season.

Minus ONE for a D-Man who lead the team in ice time is NOT a deal breaker for me.

Still contend he is not a top two D-man in the NHL?

Considering that there are 60 top two defensemen (2 per 30 teams) in the league, and that Poti finished in the top 20 in four of the five catagories, I don't believe your assessment is accurate.....Bill

Anonymous said...

Poti clearly isn’t a top 2 d man. For example Witt doesn’t have great stats that don’t mean he isn’t good. Potis problem isn’t offense. Yes he can provide goals and some offense and help the power play. That is great however he has a major problem. He turns the puck over way too much. He is awful in his own end.

Candyman said...

I defend my stance to the grave. I guess we noticed different things. I saw a player who repeatedly turned over the puck and was largely responsible for a horrible powerplay. I don't have stats to back that up--but that's what I saw.

Anonymous said...

Perception is in the eyes of the beholder. If Poti turned the puck over as much as you think:

Why is he only Minus 1?
Why was he playing 25+ minutes a night?
Why was he playing on the Power Play?

And finally,

Why was he scooped up hours after becoming a free agent and signed to a long term deal for top 2 D-man money?

Sometimes, your judgement is clouded by your dislike for a player personally.

I think Jason Blake was a selfish, one way, jerk.
But, he still put 40 pucks in the net.......Bill

PS Justin, I hope you won't be taking your stance to the grave anytime soon.

Anonymous said...

OK enough on Poti.

If Berard makes the team who doesn't?.........Bill

Nyisles82 said...

Bill I really hope its Park or Bates (hope even more that it's Bates). People talk about Martinek being made of glass, what about that guy? Though I guess we're going to stick with 6 D-men instead...in which case Campoli goes down.

shinkdew said...

Campoli and Gervais have to clear waivers in order to be sent to Bridgeport. There is no way either of those guys would clear waivers without somebody picking them up. I'm guessing if Berard makes the team, Gervais is going to be scratched most games, or somebody is going to be traded.

J Picker said...

I still only have limited internet service but I see that everyone has been talking alot about Poti. But are we really crying that he left. Yes he had a solid year with us and was called upon to eat minutes for our d corp but at times he did see lost or uninterested in what was happening on the ice. Also the length and amount that was given to him does not justify his true market value.

I say good for Poti for cashing in on what was a good season, and an off-season short on dmen, and a team like the Capitals who had the money to throw at him. Yes we could have still signed him but do/did you really want to be locked into a player for 4 years at 3.5 per. I don't even though we have the cap room if poti wanted like 3 for 2-3 years I would probably have done it. Even 3.5 for 2 years would be ok with me, but 4 years is alot of time to invest in a player who has had 1 good solid year at the age of 30 and yes I realize that d takes longer to mature then forwards.

Anyway lets look like our current d-corp. If Berard makes the team I see the lines looking like this
Witt-Martinek
Sutton-MAB
Bruno/Campoli-Berard

Berard making this team could actually be a blessing in disguise. It will allow us to allow both Bruno and Campoli to see time at the NHL level but also allow them to further develop and learn the NHL game. We should all agree that while both these guys look good they need to learn more about the game. While Berard is not as talented as he once was, he still understands the game and would not only be a help as a part of the 3rd pairing but also give us that pp qb to feed MAB that we have all been waiting for this summer.

Anonymous said...

Interesting that not one person mentioned FM V....BILL

Anonymous said...

Marleau signed a two year extension with the Sharks. Scratch another potential free agent for next year.....Bill

Nyisles82 said...

I guess there's only one thing that can happen with all these guys getting locked up long term: trades. Owners & GMs are scared of players leaving for nothing, so they're signing extensions earlier and willing to incur more risk. Looks like "upside potential" is worth more than "overrated talent" to these teams. No idea how this is going to pan out... though I can't imagine all these extensions are going to work out. When they don't, look out for a flurry of trades.


Since there is no way to see how these extensions will work out, I hesitate to comment on the Isles' unwillingness to also extend contracts (as of now).

Anonymous said...

NYISLES,

Lots of long term deals include "no trade" or "no movement" clauses, so don't look for a lot of trades.

Besides, why would on GM take on a massive contract for an unproductive player (see Alexi Yashin).

My own feeling is that it is better to lock up second and third line players into long term deals.
You pretty much know what you are getting, and they are the heart of your team. They are also not ridiculously expensive.
Top four D-men should also be locked up long term.

Fourth line players and 5 th,6 th and 7 th D-men can be filled in from prospects or unsigned cheaper players.

Top line players are going to command top line money. Get used to it. Teams that have them will pay accordingly to keep them. There will be no true superstars hitting the free agent market any time soon.

This is why I feel the Islanders are in shambles. They have no "star" players to lock up long term (except DP) and the chances of signing a free agent are nil.
The GM refuses to spend money on solid players like Markov and Hunter and instead signs one year rentals.

Serious question...What happens next year when the rentals all move on? Re sign Bates, Park, Hilbert and Simon?

This is why I advocate getting rid of them now, and seeing what the farm has to offer. This season is lost anyway. May as well make it a developmental year. If any of the kids show promise then lock them up long term.

Any other suggestions?......Bill

J Picker said...

unless he stole Scott Niedermeyers talent over the summer i don't expect to see him much or at all this season. Lets assume Berard does make the team or decides he will go play at Bridgeport that makes FMV our 8/9 d-man. For the sake of our season let hope if we do see a 8/9th dman that is for games few and far behind